Treasury Wines – Sellers are in Control

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine sell conditions and we highlight the recent softness in US sales data as a concern.

Sales within Asia continue to offset the US related weakness, however, we expect the TWE share price to remain under pressure.

Based on FY20 & FY21 EPS growth remaining in the 10 – 15% range, we have TWE EBIT growing from $660mn in FY19 to $850mn in FY21. This supports a forward yield of 3%.

We’re not holding TWE in our portfolio at present and we prepared today’s post on TWE as a reminder of the opportunity that lies ahead when the stock switches to buy conditions. We expect to see this in the first quarter of the New Year.

Downside target $15.50 – $16.50

 

Register for Monday’s Webinar –  Learn how we generated a 63% YTD return 

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

For our next Live Webinar, I will review high conviction ASX buy and sell opportunities from the recent algo engine and model portfolio signals. This webinar is exclusive to our members.

Register Here.

    • Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
    • Date: 9th of December
    • Time: 12:30pm NSW/VIC time, 11:30am Qld time, Midday SA time, 9:30am WA time
    • Duration: 45 min
    • Members and Trial Users Only!

Learn the strategies and stock holdings that allowed us to generate 63% return in our new Interactive Brokers account model.

Boral – Resistance at $5.00

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

Boral is under Algo Engine sell conditions.

Boral disclosed that financial irregularities in its NAM Windows business will result in a US$20-30m EBITDA hit to its FY20 earnings. The announcement will weigh on Boral’s share price and we expect resistance to build at $5.00.

 

 

Dexus – Buy Signal

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

is under Algo Engine buy conditions and is a current holding in our ASX 100 model portfolio.

The short-term momentum indicators have turned positive and we see buying support increasing within the $11.50 – $12.00 price range.

Domino’s – “High Conviction” Sell

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises is under Algo Engine sell conditions and is a current “high conviction” short.

A combination of underperforming international stores and an eroding position within technological leadership across fast food means we struggle with the 30x PE multiple and low 2.5% yield.

Within 2 – 5 years we forecast the business trades at 14x earnings and 4% yield, meaning the fair value is closer to $20, not the current price of $52.

 

 

 

 

IPL – Opportunity Approaches

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

Incitec Pivot was triggered as an Algo Engine buy signal on Thursday 21st November. With an improving outlook for earnings in FY20 & 21 we’re willing to take a closer look at the upside potential.

The short-term technical indicators are about to turn positive and we’re likely to see buying interest pick-up near the $3.20 support level.

We’ll revisit this opportunity as the entry conditions playout next week.