BHP – Where is the 50% Retracement

At $21.00,  BHP will be trading at the 50% retracement level of the 2016 rally.

Often, we’d expect this level to provide buying support. The Algo Engine is now flagging the higher low structure and therefore, within the $21.00 – $22.50 range, we look to identify the short-term momentum indicators turning positive, to confirm our entry point.

Chart – BHP

 

 

Origin Increases Beetaloo JV

ORIGIN INCREASES INTEREST IN PROSPECTIVE BEETALOO JOINT VENTURE TO 70%

Origin Energy Limited (Origin) today announced it had increased to 70%  its share in the Beetaloo Joint Venture after acquiring Sasol Petroleum Australia Limited’s (Sasol)  35% share.

Origin CEO, Frank Calabria said, “Having recently announced the discovery of a material shale gas resource in the Beetaloo Basin, Origin has seized the opportunity to increase its interest in the Beetaloo Joint Venture by acquiring Sasol’s 35 per cent share.

Our Algo Engine triggered a buy signal in early March at or near $6.25. We remain long the stock and see upside potential to $8.00.

Chart – ORG

 

 

Has Gold Found A Bottom?

The Spot Gold price hit a high of $1290.00 on April 17th. Over the last two weeks, the price has dropped over 5% to close just over $1227.00 in late NY trade.

During the same time, the share price of Newcrest Mining has dropped over 20% from $25.30 to $20.10 at Friday’s ASX close.

The closure of the Cadia mine has had a multiplying effect on the share price; which was already feeling the pressure of lower spot gold prices.

The daily chart patterns in both Gold and Newcrest are showing technically oversold conditions. At current prices, we consider both assets good value for a medium-term reversion trade to $1260 and $22.75, respectfully.  Newcrest

Telstra Higher on ACCC Ruling

Telstra shares got a boost today as the ACCC decided against letting rival Telcos roam their regional mobile network at a government fixed price.

Some analysts have estimated that mobile communications contributes about 45% of earnings, or $4.2 billion, in 2017/18. Telstra shares have jump by over 4% to reach $4.45 in early trade.

On April 20th, we wrote a blog piece about how TLS at $4.00 per share represented close to an 8% yield on their 15.5 cent dividend. We see value in the stock up to $4.50 keeping the forward yield in the 7.00% area.

Scentre Group – Update

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) today announced its first quarter update for the three months to 31 March 2017. The Group’s operations continue to perform strongly with developments progressing well and comparable speciality sales up 2.4% for the 12 months to 31 March 2017

The Group maintains its guidance for full year growth in funds from operations (FFO) of approximately 4.25%. The distribution guidance of 21.73 cents per security is also maintained.

We like SCG as an income contributor to client portfolios. When complimented with a tight covered call, we’re delivering 10 – 12% annualised cash flow and allowing for moderate capital growth.

Chart – SCG

 

 

NAB Posts Mixed Results

NAB announced a 2.3% increase in its H1 cash profit to $3.29 billion, which was largely in line with the street’s expectations, but much better than the $1.74 billion loss for the March 2016 half-year result.

While cash earnings grew, net interest margin fell 11 basis points to 1.82%. Charges for bad debts were up 5.1% to $394 million.

The bank maintained its interim dividend at 99 cents per share, fully franked.

Shares of NAB raced to a high of $33.80 at the open but have now settled back into the low $33.00 handle. Our near-term target is around the January lows of $30.50.

 

Crude Oil Dips Below $48.00

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil prices dropped below $48.00 for the first time in over a month as rising output in the USA, Canada and Libya have more than offset the production cuts agreed to by OPEC members last November.

At one point in the NY session Crude prices were over 3% lower to $47.40 before weekly US inventory data lifted the market back over $47.90.

we have been following the BetaShare Oil ETF called OOO. It has traded in a wide range between $17.50 and $13.80 this year as crude prices have fluctuated.