A New Bullish Case For Gold

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on A New Bullish Case For Gold

Spot gold rose to its highest levels since November near $1,295 per ounce on Wednesday, good for a 13% gain so far in 2017.

In so doing, Gold broke a technical downtrend that has been in place since the  September 2011 peak of $1,900 per ounce.

The support in the yellow metal may be evidence of market fear rather than reflationary exuberance. The Chinese Gold and Silver Society Exchange expects 2017 mainland gold imports to increase by 50% from the prior year, amidst increased safe haven demand.

Daily chart analysis points to the next resistance level near the September highs of $1,322.

We continue to accumulate shares and call options on NCM. We also suggest shares in EVN and the BetaShare Gold ETF with the symbol QAU.

 

 

James Hardie Support At $18.00

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on James Hardie Support At $18.00

Regular readers will recall that we’ve had a bearish bias on JHX since it broke the $22.50 level in the early part of May.

At that time, the stock was trading at 27 times earnings on a 2.2% annual yield

A weaker US house construction market combined with a general contraction in US retail sales has kept shares of JHX offered over the last several weeks.

We maintain our downside target of $18.00 per share over the medium-term.

James Hardie

 

Bendigo Battered Again

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Bendigo Battered Again

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) shares are down a further 2.7 % after losing  a whopping 4.4 % yesterday.

In addition to general weakness in the banking sector, shares of BEN are feeling the fallout from alleged accounting discrepancies from their reverse mortgage division, Home Safe.

From a technical perspective, the next significant level of support will be found around the August 8th lows of $9.75.

We would urge caution to investors considering buying BEN above the $10.00 handle.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank

 

 

Take Profits On TWE

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Take Profits On TWE

Back on February 15th, TWE announced that their first half net profit doubled to $136 million. Since then, the share price has traded from $11.20 to an all-time high of $13.63 yesterday.

We suggest taking profits in this price area or writing at-the-money covered calls to enhance the portfolio returns.

There’s no question that TWE has been a well-managed, success story in the beverage space and we’ll follow the ALGO engine to buy back in at lower levels.

Treasury Wine Estates

 

Gold Climbs To An 8-Week High…….NCM Up 1.5%

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Gold Climbs To An 8-Week High…….NCM Up 1.5%

On May 6th, we posted a report on Gold which suggested the yellow metal was holding support levels at $1220.00 and had a medium-term target of $1260.00. At this time, NCM was trading at $20.10

Gold traded as high as $1281 in early Asian trade today and NCM is finally joining the rally. The stock  has reached a two-week high of $21.78 and internal momentum indicators are looking constructive for a move higher.

We’re still expecting higher prices in both, with the next resistance level for gold at $1293.00, and the May 18th high of $22.20 for NCM.

Newcrest Mining

 

 

 

 

US Stocks Trade Higher On Weak Jobs Report

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on US Stocks Trade Higher On Weak Jobs Report

The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, a new multi-year low, but it is a misleading statistic for what was a very disappointing overall report.

Besides the decline in the unemployment rate, and a further decline in the under-employment rate (U-6) from 8.6% to 8.4%, there is little positive in today’s report.

Non-farm payroll growth fell to 138k, nearly 50k below expectations, which had been bolstered by the weekly jobs claims and the ISM jobs component.  Adding insult to injury, the back to months saw jobs growth revised 66k lower than first reported.

Moreover, the drop in the unemployment rate can largely be explained by the decline in the participation rate from 62.9% to 62.7%. This unwinds this year’s improvement in the participation rate, and bring it back to where it finished last year.

The  major stock indexes finished higher on the day, on thin volume, as the odds of a third rate hike for 2017 have been reduced

Buy The Pullback In Origin

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Buy The Pullback In Origin

Origin Energy has been trading in a broad range between $6.70 and $8.10 over the last four months.

We recently took profits for client portfolios at $8.00 and are currently looking for a retracement into the $7.50 area to re-enter long positions.

The recent weakness in crude oil has had a dampening effect on various energy names. However, we feel Origin’s natural gas assets will keep the share price fairly well bid over the medium to longer-term.

Origin

 

Iron Ore Slips Below $60.00

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Iron Ore Slips Below $60.00

Spot prices of Iron Ore fell again overnight  dropping to a fresh seven-month low. The 62% grade was down over 2.5% to close at $57.02 per ton.

During the month of May, Iron Ore dropped over 17%, extending its decline from the multi-year high of $95.00 last traded in February.

Mining names BHP, RIO and FMG are all under pressure in early trade losing more than 1% each.

FMG has reached an eight-month low of $4.70. We see the next downside targets on Rio and BHP at $59.50 and $22.50, respectfully.

Rio Tinto

BHP

Fortescue Metals

 

ALGO Buy Signal In Medibank

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ALGO Buy Signal In Medibank

The ALGO  engine triggered a buy signal on yesterday’s close for MPL at $2.72.

Internal momentum indicators are showing an oversold condition, which doesn’t rule out a test of the January lows near $2.60.

As a defensive name in an increasingly uncertain market, we suggest buying shares of MPL and using a derivative overlay strategy to  enhance the returns.

We still see limited revenue growth and material resistance in the $3.00 area. However, with the 4% dividend yield and income from the option premium, we see the stock as positive income contributor to client portfolios.

Medibank

 

 

 

Solid Gains For Gold

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Solid Gains For Gold

After posting a low on May 9th at $1215.00, Gold touched a high $1270.00 in late NY trade on Friday. Internal momentum indicators are looking constructive for a move back to the April high of $1295.00

For investors looking to profit from a higher gold price, we suggest buying shares of NCM, EVN, or the BetaShare Gold ETF with the symbol: QUA. 

We have a medium-term target for NCM at $25.50, $3.00 for EVN and $14.00 for QUA.  Newcrest Mining

Evolution Mining

 

BetaShare Gold ETF