Origin – Breakout

Origin Energy has broken out of a prolonged downtrend as the negative earnings cycle appears to be nearing the bottom.

The market has low expectations for FY22 earnings with EBITDA down almost 40% on FY21 and DPS falling from $0.14 to $0.10 placing the stock on an expected yield of 2.2%.

We see upside for Origin and suggest a stop loss below the recent $3.87 low.

Origin Energy 1Q21 Production

Nat Gas prices continue to rebound from the historic lows reached mid this year.

Origin share price remains under selling pressure but is likely to soon find buying support.

Origin’s September quarter revenue of A$374m was down 39% from the prior quarter. Lower prices were in part offset by higher production volumes.

Origin Energy – Earnings Update

Origin Energy is a holding in our portfolio, based on the strong anticipated earnings coming from the group’s investment in the Australia Pacific LNG project.

The result announced today shows an increase in profit from the APLNG of 40% plus. Overall group earnings are ahead of market consensus at $1bn and the company declared a $0.15 dividend.