Gold Roads – Buy

Gold Road Resources is under Algo Engine buy conditions, although the medium term pivot point highlights the recent selling pressure.

On the positive side, 4QCY20 operational result was in line with forecasts and closing cash was also in line after a solid production rebound from the previous quarter.

FY21 revenue forecast is for $300mil generating EBIT of $100mil which will help support an expected 4% yield.

Gold Road – Support Price

Gold Road Resources is under Algo Engine buy conditions and we expect buying interest to rebuild near the $1.50 support level.

A combination of lower gold prices in the spot market and the recently announced interruption to production has seen the GOR share price fall from the $2.00 highs reached in July.

Gold Road Resources Limited (Gold Road) reports an interruption to its September 2020 quarter production for the Gruyere Gold Mine (Gruyere) following a ball mill motor bearing failure. Gruyere is a 50:50 joint venture with Gruyere Mining Company Pty Ltd, a member of the Gold Fields Limited group (Gold Fields), who manage Gruyere.

The ball mill motor bearing failure occurred on a restart of the Gruyere processing facility after a scheduled maintenance shutdown. Upon detection of the failure, a specialist team was mobilised to site. Following a thorough inspection, the root cause of the failure has been determined,
rectification measures have been taken and the available spare has been installed. As a result of the extended shutdown, production at Gruyere was impacted for 7 days after the planned shutdown, with normal processing operations resuming Thursday afternoon on 24 September.

All in Sustaining Costs (AISC) for Gold Road’s attributable share of production was expected to peak in the September 2020 quarter, with lower gold production as the operation transitioned to fresh rock processing, with the quarter’s costs impacted by reduced gold production. Configuration of
the milling circuit for fresh rock processing required some additional plant downtime early in the quarter to maintain throughput rates.

Due to the ball mill motor bearing failure and additional plant downtime early in the quarter, Gold Road anticipates gold produced for the September 2020 quarter to be 53,000 to 57,000 ounces (100% basis). AISC for the September 2020 quarter are anticipated to be in the range of A$1,540 –
A$1,590 per ounce.

As a result of this quarter’s production disruptions, full year production guidance for 2020 (100% basis) is anticipated at 250,000 to 270,000 ounces (previously 250,000 to 285,000 ounces) and Gold Road’s attributable annual AISC guidance is revised to between A$1,250 – A$1,350 (previously A$1,150 to A$1,250).

Gold Road Resources – Update

Gold Road Resources is under Algo Engine buy conditions and along with NCM is our preferred gold exposure.

The company provided financial statements for the 6 month period ending June 30, which displayed revenue $135mn, EBIT, $36mn and EPS of $0.026.

Key points include:

Gold Road repaid all debt whilst retaining the undrawn facility of A$100M (US$71M). Net cash and equivalents of A$84M (US$60M) at 30 June 2020.

71,865 ounces produced* at attributable AISC of A$1,233/oz (US$875/oz)2.

Quarterly free cash flow of A$23.8M (excl. unsold bullion
and dore).