– Algo Sell Conditions

Carsales.Com is under Algo Engine sell conditions following the lower high formation at $13.50.

Earnings guidance provided by Carsales for FY19  are for EBITDA of $210mn and  NPAT of A$131mn. Revenue guidance was a little weak, indicating full year profits are being supported by cost out initiatives.

We will review CAR on the price retracement & Algo Engine buy signal. – Technical Bounce

CAR is one of the “GARP” (growth at a reasonable price), names that we’ve been tracking.

With the stock bouncing off the $11.00 price level, we suggest running a tight stop-loss below the recent “pivot low” and giving the upside momentum a chance to develop.

Within the back drop of market volatility, it is difficult to know how this trade plays out in the short-term. Therefore, we highlight the need to run a stop loss.

We consider ALL & TWE as similar technical opportunities.

TWE, SEK & CAR – Above Trend EPS Growth

TWE, SEK and CAR are all displaying current Algo Engine buy signals and are  therefore a holdings within our ASX100 model portfolio.

We recommend accumulating TWE stock within the $14.50 – $15.50 price range.

Seek is another name where above average EPS growth is likely to be achieved in FY19 & FY20.  We recommend accumulating the stock within the $17 – $18 price range.

CAR delivered a disappointing earnings update earlier this month, however, with the stock price correcting 25%, we now see value emerging.




CAR Reported 1H EPS

CAR Reported 1H EPSg of 5%, is the current 22x P/E sustainable?

Assuming an acceleration from 5% EPS growth to 10% EPS (big ask) in the next 12 months it will place CAR on a 3.5% yield. We’ve seen other high PE stocks negatively rerate such as TPG and I think some caution and close watching of the earnings trend in CAR is required.

Global tech players such as eBay, gumtree, facebook etc are becoming more active in CAR’s business space. This may be part of the reason EPS growth is dropping off.

Chart – CAR