Treasury Wines – Algo Buy

Treasury Wine Estates is now under Algo Engine buy conditions after a 50% sell off from the 2018 highs.

The company’s distribution and operating margin issues are well documented but we now start to ask, if this is the inflection point in company earnings?

Join us for Monday night’s webinar where we’ll take a closer look at the trends impacting the earnings outlook for TWE.

Treasury Wines – Sellers are in Control

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine sell conditions and we highlight the recent softness in US sales data as a concern.

Sales within Asia continue to offset the US related weakness, however, we expect the TWE share price to remain under pressure.

Based on FY20 & FY21 EPS growth remaining in the 10 – 15% range, we have TWE EBIT growing from $660mn in FY19 to $850mn in FY21. This supports a forward yield of 3%.

We’re not holding TWE in our portfolio at present and we prepared today’s post on TWE as a reminder of the opportunity that lies ahead when the stock switches to buy conditions. We expect to see this in the first quarter of the New Year.

Downside target $15.50 – $16.50


Treasury Wines – Valuation Review

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine sell conditions following a lower high formation at $17.50.

Earnings continue to grow at 15 – 20%, although there is evidence that the growth rate is slowing.  If we assume total revenue in FY20 of $3bn on EBIT of $765mn, 15% earnings per share growth, we can support a 3% dividend yield.

On the above basis, we consider TWE fair value, but see little in the way of a catalyst to drive the share price higher. We therefore, recommend selling a covered call option to enhance the income return.


Treasury Wine – 1H19 Earnings

TWE 1H19 earnings met market consensus at $339m. 

Earnings from American markets exceeded expectations, whilst Asia was slightly below the elevated guidance.

Overall the result looks okay with continued EPS growth in the 20 – 25% range.

Based on EPS growth into 2020, we have TWE on a 2.8% forward yield.

TWE Surges Higher After Chinese On-Line Sales Decision

Shares of TWE have extended yesterday’s gains and are 3% higher at $14.70 in early trade today.

The catalyst for the sudden rally has been the Chinese government’s clarification of on-line sales regulations for offshore companies.

Prior to yesterday’s announcement, TWE and other online vendors were uncertain of the on-line sales protocol past December of this year.

So far this year, TWE has registered over $500 million in sales from the Asian region, led by sales to China, which make up over 20% of its total group sales.

The next chart resistance level is at $15.60 with a longer-term target near $17.90.

Treasury Wine Estates – Technical Bounce

CAR is one of the “GARP” (growth at a reasonable price), names that we’ve been tracking.

With the stock bouncing off the $11.00 price level, we suggest running a tight stop-loss below the recent “pivot low” and giving the upside momentum a chance to develop.

Within the back drop of market volatility, it is difficult to know how this trade plays out in the short-term. Therefore, we highlight the need to run a stop loss.

We consider ALL & TWE as similar technical opportunities.