US Interest Rates

The Fed Decision

The Fed kept rates on hold between 5.0% and 5.25%, in-line with market expectations. As for Powell’s commentary, here are some of his key comments:

    • Rate outlook: “We are prepared to maintain the current target range for longer if appropriate … If the economy evolves going forward, the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of this year, 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% at the end of 2026.”
    • Rate outlook: “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this time in the cycle.

    Overall – The Fed still seeks greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably down before making its first rate cut.

    Atlassian

    TEAM:NAS is under Algo Engine buy conditions.

    First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Highlights:
    On a GAAP basis, Atlassian reported:

    • Revenue: Total revenue was $977.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, up 21% from $807.4 million
      for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023.
    • Operating Loss and Operating Margin: Operating loss was $18.9 million for the first quarter of fiscal year
      2024, compared with operating loss of $34.0 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Operating
      margin was (2)% for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, compared with (4)% for the first quarter of fiscal year
      2023.
    • Net Loss and Net Loss Per Diluted Share: Net loss was $31.9 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024,
      compared with net loss of $13.7 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Net loss per diluted share
      was $0.12 for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, compared with net loss per diluted share of $0.05 for the first
      quarter of fiscal year 2023.
    • Balance Sheet: Cash and cash equivalents plus marketable securities at the end of the first quarter of fiscal
      year 2024 totaled $2.2 billion.

    Financial Targets:
    Atlassian is providing the following financial targets that do not include any impact from the Loom acquisition, which is
    expected to close in the third quarter of its fiscal year 2024, subject to customary closing conditions and required
    regulatory approval:
    Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024:

    • Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $1,010 million to $1,030 million.
    • Cloud revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be in the range of 25.5% to 27.5%.
    • Data Center revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be approximately 33%.
    • Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a nonGAAP basis.
    • Operating margin is expected to be approximately (7.5%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 21.0% on a nonGAAP basis.
      2
      Fiscal Year 2024:
    • Cloud revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be in the range of 25% to 30%.
    • Data Center revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be approximately 31%.
    • Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a nonGAAP basis.
    • Operating marg

    Palantir

    PLTR:NYS shares were more than 30 per cent higher after the company reported big demand for its artificial intelligence technology and gave a higher-than-expected profit outlook for 2024.

    Wedbush Securities called Palantir “an undiscovered gem and a core part of our thesis in the AI Revolution just now taking shape across the tech world”. Wedbush said it believes Palantir is on track to be included in the S&P 500.

    FY 2023 Highlights

    • Revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $2.23 billion
    • Commercial revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $1.0 billion
      • US commercial revenue grew 36% year-over-year to $457 million
    • Government revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $1.2 billion
    • GAAP net income of $210 million, representing a 9% margin
    • GAAP income from operations of $120 million, representing a 5% margin
    • Cash from operations of $712 million, representing a 32% margin
    • Adjusted free cash flow of $731 million, representing a 33% margin
    • Adjusted income from operations of $633 million, representing a 28% margin

    Mega-cap US tech: Earnings Analysis

    Mega-cap US tech stocks Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all reported this week.

    Reneue scoreboard: Year-over-year growth Microsoft +18%, Meta +16%, Amazon +12%, Alphabet +9%.

    Microsoft

    Alphabet

    Meta delivered an incredible Q4 2023, generating $5.33 in GAAP EPS and $40.11 billion in revenue. META beat on the top and bottom lines, announced a $50 billion buyback authorization, and implemented a dividend program.

    Amazon: Fourth Quarter 2023

    • Net sales increased 14% to $170.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $149.2 billion in fourth quarter 2022.
    • Full Year 2023 Net sales increased 12% to $574.8 billion in 2023, compared with $514.0 billion in 2022.
    • North America segment sales increased 12% year-over-year to $352.8 billion.
    • International segment sales increased 11% year-over-year to $131.2 billion.
    • AWS segment sales increased 13% year-over-year to $90.8 billion.
    • Operating income increased to $36.9 billion in 2023, compared with $12.2 billion in 2022.
    • AWS segment operating income was $24.6 billion, compared with operating income of $22.8 billion in 2022.
    • Net income was $30.4 billion in 2023, or $2.90 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.7 billion, or $0.27 per diluted share, in 2022.
    • Free cash flow improved to an inflow of $36.8 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with an outflow of $11.6 billion for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2022.

    Honeywell

    HON:NAS

    HONEYWELL ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER
    AND FULL YEAR 2023 RESULTS; ISSUES 2024 GUIDANCE

    • Fourth Quarter Earnings Per Share of $1.91 and Adjusted Earnings Per Share1
      of $2.60, Above Midpoint of
      Previous Guidance
    • Fourth Quarter Sales of $9.4 Billion, Reported Sales Up 3%, Organic1
      Sales Up 2%
    • Full Year Operating Cash Flow of $5.3 Billion and Free Cash Flow1
      of $4.3B, at High End of Previous Guidance
    • Deployed $8.3 Billion of Capital to Share Repurchases, Dividends, Capital Expenditures, and M&A in 2023
    • Expect 2024 Adjusted Earnings Per Share2,3 of $9.80 – $10.10, Up 7% – 10%
    • Vimal Kapur to Become Chairman of the Board; New Independent Lead Director Announced

    MongoDB

    NAS: MDB is a buy with a suggested stop loss below $360.

    Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Highlights

    • Revenue: Total revenue was $432.9 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, an increase of 30% year-over-year. Subscription revenue was $418.3 million, an increase of 30% year-over-year, and services revenue was $14.6 million, an increase of 13% year-over-year.
    • Gross Profit: Gross profit was $325.9 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, representing a 75% gross margin compared to 72% in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP gross profit was $335.3 million, representing a 77% non-GAAP gross margin, compared to a non-GAAP gross margin of 74% in the year-ago period.
    • Loss from Operations: Loss from operations was $45.2 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to a loss from operations of $82.9 million in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP income from operations was $78.5 million, compared to a non-GAAP income from operations of $19.8 million in the year-ago period.
    • Net Loss: Net loss was $29.3 million, or $0.41 per share, based on 71.6 million weighted-average shares outstanding, for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. This compares to a net loss of $84.8 million, or $1.23 per share, in the year-ago period. Non-GAAP net income was $79.1 million, or $0.96 per share, based on 82.7 million diluted weighted-average shares outstanding. This compares to a non-GAAP net income of $18.7 million, or $0.23 per share, in the year-ago period.
    • Cash Flow: As of October 31, 2023, MongoDB had $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and restricted cash. During the three months ended October 31, 2023, MongoDB generated $38.4 million of cash from operations, used $2.1 million of cash in capital expenditures and used $1.4 million of cash in principal repayments of finance leases, leading to free cash flow of $35.0 million, compared to negative free cash flow of $8.4 million in the year-ago period.

    Karoon Energy

    Karoon Energy is a new entry in the ASX 200 Trade Table

    Who Dat acquisition enables Karoon’s entry to US Gulf of Mexico (US GoM) & provides asset diversification. We factor in KAR’s acquisition at $720m equity raising (US$300m) and debt drawdown (US$274m). The acquisition now presents an opportunity for investors.

    The Who Dat oil and gas field is located in Mississippi Canyon (MC) blocks 503 / 504 / 547 in
    the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in water depths of 945m. Who Dat was discovered in late 2007,
    and has been in production since 2011. Who Dat is made up of numerous stacked reservoirs
    of Pliocene & Miocene age. Producing reservoirs are located at depths of 10,000ft-17,000ft.
    Oil is sold into the Mars pipeline (operated by Shell), while gas is sold into the Canyon Chief
    pipeline (operated by Williams).

    Rapid 7

    RPD:NAS announces First Quarter 2023 Financial Results

    • Annualized recurring revenue (“ARR”) of $728 million, an increase of 16% year-over-year
    • Total revenue of $183 million, up 16% year-over-year; Products revenue of $174 million, up 17% year-over-year
    • GAAP operating loss of $24 million; Non-GAAP operating income of $11 million
    • Surpassed 11,000 customers globally while growing total ARR per customer by 9% year-over-year

    Paypal

    PYPL:NAS has been consolidating between $71 & $76 for the past 8 weeks. The stock offers value and may break to the upside of the channel.

    Q1 payment growth of 10% to US$354.5bn, Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.17 vs. $1.10 expected, expects Q2 revenue growth of about 6.5% to 7.0%, raised full-year guidance. PayPal had an excellent start to  2023, delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter, and increased full-year EPS guidance.