CBA – Reports 12 Aug

Commonwealth Bank of remains under Algo Engine sell conditions and we see resistance building near the $74 price level.

CBA reports FY20 earnings on 12 August, at which time the market will focus on CBA’s dividend and any capital management commentary. Consensus expectations are for earnings to be $7.8bn, (down 10% on 2019 numbers), and the 2H20 dividend to be cut by 50%.

We remain on the short side of the CBA trade.

Commonwealth Bank

We remain cautious on the banks and feel the trough in the share price may be two to three months out from now, at which point a good long-term buy opportunity will be in place.

Short term we continue to watch CBA track below the downsloping resistance.


Commonwealth Bank of Australia – unaudited cash profit fell 23% in the three months ended March 31 to $1.3 billion from $1.7 billion in the year-earlier.

CBA has provisioned $1.5 billion for COVID-19 provisions.

The below graph provides a picture of the trend that short-term traders may be interested in.

CBA Earnings

Commonwealth Bank of has announced FY19 cash earnings of $8,5bn, slightly below consensus estimates. The full-year dividend of $4.30 was in line with estimates and places the stock on a 5.1% yield.

Weak revenues were a clear issue with and FY20 headwinds on both revenues and costs will see downside pressure build for the CBA share price.



CBA – Algo Sell Signal

Commonwealth Bank of is under Algo Engine sell conditions and we’ll get insight into the earnings picture when the company reports their FY19 results on Wednesday 7th August.

We remain concerned about the declining profitability in retail banking.

With the stock trading on a  5% dividend yield, we expect to see buying support develop closer to the $75 price range.



CBA – Earnings & Valuation Review

Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported 3Q19 cash earnings of A$2.2bn,
being below market consensus by 10%.

Analysts have downgraded FY19 earnings by 6%, (which incorporates the $500m post tax remediation charge), while FY20 and FY21 estimates are also lowered on weaker revenue numbers.

CBA currently trades 13x earnings on a 5.8% yield. A key risk for the business is an adverse turn in the credit cycle, which is not reflected in the current share price.

CBA has been under Algo Engine sell conditions following the lower high formation over the past 3 years.