AZJ – Selling Pressure

AZJ has recognised an A$526m impairment to its Bulk assets, and continues its Inter-modal review.

AZJ noted continues to face challenging market conditions and we feel investor sentiment will be negative leading into the FY17 results on 14 August 2017.

AZJ has previously guided towards FY17 EBIT within A$800-850m range.

Regular viewers of the ASX top 50 video market report, will recognise AZJ as a stock we’ve been warning about, in 2017. Our concern relates to the sustainability of the high dividend payout ratio and the probability of the company being forced to announce a cut at the August result.

Chart – AZJ

 

 

Algo Update – BHP & WOW

Recent Algo Engine buy signals in BHP and WOW continue to perform strongly.

An overnight rally in metal and oil prices will support BHP in today’s trading   and investors may wish to consider selling covered calls into November, at or near the $26 strike price.

Chart – BHP

Woolworths reports earnings on the 23rd August and the market will be looking for underlying EPS growth of 8% to support the 22x earnings multiple.

With WOW now trading on forward yield of 3% and a relatively high multiple, we encourage investors to sell $28 Dec call options to boost the annual cash flow return.

Chart – WOW

 

Computershare – Earnings Result 16th Aug

Computershare reports earnings on the 16th August.

At 20x forward earnings and 2.6% dividend yield, we feel CPU will likely disappoint and deliver earnings below market expectations.

Any bounce in CPU from these levels will provide an opportunity to consider building new short exposure.

Chart – CPU

James Hardie trades at 26x forward earnings with a 2.7% forward yield.

Again, we consider this name expensive and likely to disappoint investors when JHX report earnings on the 8th August.

A rally back towards $21.00 will provide an opportunity to reset short exposure.

Chart – JHXJHX

 

 

Algo Signal Update – GrainCorp

As an update to last week’s post on GrainCorp, we again remind readers that GNC is approaching an oversold level.

We expect support will likely develop at or near the current price level.

The trade in GNC is  likely to be a corrective move from oversold conditions.

The stock price is unlikely to develop into a meaningful uptrend.  We recommend a stop loss below the final pivot, or entry point. GNC

$8.50 – $9.00 is buying support with $9.50 is the profit target.

Chart – GNC

 

 

 

Algo Buy Signal – Sonic Healthcare

On 12th July, our Algo Engine triggered a buy signal in Sonic Healthcare, at or near $22.20.

We see this as a level of price support and our base case is that Sonic trades sideways, at or near the current price.

Sonic reports earnings on the 16th of August and we expect underlying EPS growth of 8%, which will support a forward dividend yield of 3.8%.

When combining a covered call option, we’re generating 10 – 12% cash-flow per year.

Chart – SHL

 

 

 

 

Algo Buy Signal – Seek

Our Algo Engine triggered a buy signal in SEK back in mid-June, when the stock was trading at $16.15, since then the price action has rallied to $17.50.

We consider the current price level as full value and investors should consider either taking profit, or selling covered call options.

Seek reports their earnings on the 16th of August and the market is expecting underlying EPS growth of 10 – 15%, delivering NPAT of $192 million.

Chart – SEK