Inner Circle

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Inner Circle

The most important disclosure Oracle made was that approximately $76.6 billion of the RPO is expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months.

What does that mean for the next few quarters?

Oracle’s FY2026 revenue was $67.4 billion. If $76.6 billion of backlog (remember total is $635 billion) converts over the next year, that’s a very substantial increase in contracted revenue available for recognition.

The first meaningful impact should start appearing in:

  • Q1 FY2027 (August 2026 quarter, reported September 2026)
  • Q2 FY2027 (November 2026 quarter, reported December 2026)

In fact, Oracle’s guidance for Q1 FY2027 already points to:

  • Total revenue growth of 27–29%
  • Cloud revenue growth of 58–64% year-over-year.

That suggests the conversion of AI-related contracts is already beginning.

Iluka

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Iluka

Iluka Resources earnings forecasts reduced due to the slower ramp-up profile.

First Rare Earths Offtake Agreement Secured

  • Iluka announced a four-year take-or-pay offtake agreement covering approximately 1,200 tonnes of Nd, Pr, Dy and Tb from CY28 onward.
  • The contract represents about 10% of planned rare earth production and validates demand for Eneabba’s future output.

Production Ramp-Up Appears Slower Than Expected

  • Contracted volumes imply a more gradual production ramp-up than previously forecast.

Eneabba Refinery Funding and Construction De-Risked

  • Export Finance Australia confirmed access to the full A$1.65bn non-recourse government loan.
  • The refinery is over 50% complete, capital cost remains A$1.7–1.8bn, and commissioning is targeted for mid-2027.

The offtake agreement is a strategic positive that validates Eneabba’s rare earth project, but the market may need to temper expectations around the speed of production ramp-up. Macquarie remains constructive on the longer-term rare earths opportunity.