Tabcorp FY16 Earnings Result

Tabcorp (TAH.ASX) reported FY16 earnings with earnings in line with market expectations.  Full year dividend of $0.24

FY17 we look for underlying EPS growth of around 8 – 10% on $2.2b in revenue and EBIT of $370m. Forecast dividend of around $0.26 which will place the stock on a 5.2% yield.

There’s a potential buy on a pullback to $4.60 and we’ll be taking close notice of any algorithm signal we generate at or near this level.

TAH

 

 

Buy Westfield 5% cash flow for 4 months

We’re adding WFD.ASX to the model portfolio as an income trade. Buying today at $10.55 and selling an $11 November call option. A combination of the $0.18 August dividend and the $0.32 for the call option, generates approximately 5% cash flow for 4 months exposure.   If exercised, the return increase to almost 10%.

Short Walgreen (Update)

We’ve been short Walgreen (WBA.NAS) and Target (TGT.NYS), both stocks are now building downside momentum. We’re mindful of the supportive backdrop in broader equity markets and the countertrend position in both of these names, therefore, reduce the stop loss to the entry point and hold both of these names looking for a further 5% downside to reach our profit targets.

Short Walgreen WBA.NAS

WBA.NAS

Short Target TGT.NYS

TGT.NYS

 

Global Macro

Over the last few months, the foreign exchange market has been more sensitive to Central bank policy measures than at any other time in decades. However, the problem for the Central banks is that the FX market has largely not responded in the direction that they have intended. This is best illustrated by this year’s monetary transmission efforts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

The BoJ has, from a percentage of GDP basis, easily been the most aggressive of the all the G-7 central banks with the BoJ’s balance sheet reaching JPY 450 trillion early last month. Despite this aggressive easing, the BoJ has not come close to its three main policy goals of increasing consumer demand, kick-starting GDP growth and pushing domestic inflation back above 2%.

This impossible trinity of inflation, consumption and GDP growth took another hit today when the BoJ failed to satisfy the market with its most recent addition to the long running QQE policy. The Bank of Japan expanded its purchases of exchange-traded funds and doubled the size of a U.S. dollar lending program, while refraining from boosting the pace of government-bond purchases that have formed the main part of its monetary stimulus.

The central bank kept its annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($779 billion), done mainly through an equivalent increase in government bond holdings. It also left untouched the minus 0.1 % rate for a portion of commercial banks’ reserves. A dollar-lending program was expanded to $24 billion.

Origin Energy June Quarter Production

ORG.ASX released the June quarter production numbers that were slightly better than market expectations.

This supports our gradual recovery outlook for ORG and we see FY 17 revenue of $12b producing an  EBIT of $1.1b on reported profit in the range of $700m.

Dividend is likely to remain unchanged at $0.20 which puts the stock on a 3.5% forward yield.

 

 

Resmed Hits Our Profit Target

RMD.ASX traded at our $9.00 profit target today. The stock has put on 20% since our buy trigger. Patience has paid off here and waiting for  todays earnings result has proven to be the right approach.

ResMed’s annual profit for the year to June 30 was $US352m on annual revenue of $US1.8b, up from $US1.7b. Revenue for the fourth quarter lifted 15 per cent to $US519m boosted by the acquisition in healthcare software group Brightree. Quarterly dividend raised to 33 US cents per share.

Our algorithm engines will continue to track RMD.ASX for future buying opportunities and I’ll be sure to keep you informed.

RMD

Enjoy the proceeds of this quick profit!