Super Micro Computer

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer, reported its Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 results on May 5, 2026. While the stock saw a massive surge (up ~18-25%) immediately following the announcement, the report was a “beat and miss” that shifted investor focus toward profitability and long-term guidance.

Revenue: $10.24 billion, representing 123% year-over-year growth. However, this missed the analyst estimate of $12.4 billion

Full Year 2026 Revenue: Raised to a range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion (up from previous targets of ~$36B).

Key Growth Drivers

    • AI Infrastructure Dominance: AI GPU-related platforms (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel-based) contributed over 80% of total revenue.
    • Supply Chain & Deferred Revenue: The revenue miss was attributed to temporary supply chain constraints and “customer readiness” (data centers lacking sufficient power/networking to accept immediate delivery). Management noted a record-high backlog, suggesting that the missed revenue is deferred to future quarters rather than lost.
    • Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC): SMCI highlighted its leadership in liquid-cooled rack solutions, which are increasingly required for the latest high-power AI chips (like NVIDIA’s Blackwell).

    Balance Sheet & Risks

    • Negative Cash Flow: The company reported negative operating cash flow of $6.6 billion for the quarter, driven by aggressive inventory build-up ($11.1 billion) to support future deliveries.
    • Leverage: Net debt rose to roughly $7.5 billion as the company utilized convertible notes and credit lines to fund its massive working capital needs.
    • Legal Overhang: Investors remain cautious regarding an ongoing independent review of export-control matters and a class-action lawsuit (lead plaintiff deadline May 26, 2026), though management stated they do not currently expect a financial restatement.

    Sea Limited

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Sea Limited

    NAS:SE strong Q1 2026 earnings report, which featured a significant revenue beat and record-breaking performance across its core business segments.

    Despite an EPS miss ($0.67 vs. $0.77 expected), investors prioritized the massive top-line growth and evidence that Sea’s strategic investments in logistics and AI are improving unit economics. The company demonstrated its ability to scale rapidly while maintaining financial discipline in a competitive Southeast Asian and Latin American landscape.

    Significant Revenue Beat: Sea reported GAAP revenue of $7.1 billion, a 46.6% year-over-year increase, comfortably exceeding the analyst consensus of $6.45 billion.

    • EBITDA Milestone: The company achieved a quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 billion for the first time, representing a 9.3% increase.
    • Shopee Dominance: The e-commerce segment reached record highs with Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of $37.3 billion (+30.2% YoY) and revenue of $4.5 billion (+44.4% YoY).

    Garena Recovery: The gaming division, Garena, delivered its strongest quarter since 2021, with bookings rising 20.1% to $931.4 million, fueled by the continued popularity of Free Fire*.

    • Fintech Growth: Its digital financial services arm, Monee, saw revenue surge 57.8% to $1.2 billion, with its loan book growing 71% while maintaining stable asset quality.

    Current Metrics (as of May 12-13, 2026)

    • Market Cap: ~$65.4 billion
    • P/E Ratio: ~38.1x (Trailing)

    AMD

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on AMD

    Intel’s latest earnings report showed big demand for central processing units, or CPUs, as companies rush to build out their artificial intelligence capabilities, sending its stock surging. The numbers led investors to scoop up shares of another major chipmaker: 

    AMD shares soared more than 12% on Friday as Wall Street analysts were caught off guard by Intel’s CPU performance — which they believe will translate to other big CPU makers.

    We figured CPUs were the next big bottleneck, but Intel’s results indicate that is already translating to very significant upside.

    Snowflake

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Snowflake

    Snowflake remains one of the highest-quality data + AI infrastructure platforms globally, positioned at the centre of enterprise data workflows.

    The investment case is simple:

    • Structural tailwind: Explosion in data + AI workloads
    • Platform leverage: Usage-based model scales with customer success
    • Margin expansion: Strong operating leverage as revenue scales

    👉 The market is pricing Snowflake as a ~25–30% revenue compounder with accelerating earnings power

    📊 Revenue Growth Profile

    MetricCurrentForward View
    Revenue Growth~30% YoY~25–27% YoY
    FY2026 Revenue~$4.7B—
    Medium-Term Target—~$8–9B (next ~3–4 yrs)

    Key Drivers

    • Enterprise data migration to cloud
    • AI / machine learning workloads
    • Expansion within existing customers (land → expand model)

    👉 Takeaway:
    Revenue growth is high but normalising, still well above most large-cap software peers.

    Based on current market estimates as of April 30, 2026, Snowflake (SNOW) is expected to report its fiscal first quarter 2027 results in late May.

    Estimated Earnings Date

    • Primary Estimate: Wednesday, May 27, 2026 (After market close).
    • Secondary Estimate: Some analysts project the release could occur as early as Wednesday, May 20, 2026.
    • Official Confirmation: Snowflake typically issues a press release confirming the exact date and time in early May (last year, the announcement was made on May 1st).

    Q1 FY2027 Analyst Expectations
    Analysts are currently forecasting the following metrics for the quarter ending April 30, 2026:

    Implied Growth: This would represent approximately 27% year-over-year revenue growth.

    Consensus EPS Forecast: ~$0.32 (estimates range from $0.14 to $0.32 depending on the source).

    Revenue Forecast: ~$1.32 billion.

    Big Data Refiners ETF

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Big Data Refiners ETF

    Based on the latest fiscal year and trailing-twelve-month (TTM) results available as of April 30, 2026, here are the top 10 holdings of the ProShares Big Data Refiners ETF (DAT) reordered by their revenue growth rates.
    Palantir Technologies Inc. | PLTR | +56.0% | Driven by explosive U.S. commercial AI demand.
    Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | +28.0% | Continued cloud monitoring scale (FY25).
    Commvault Systems, Inc. | CVLT | +19.0% | Strong transition to subscription & SaaS revenue.
    Dynatrace, Inc. | DT | +18.7% | Solid growth in observability and ARR (FY25).
    Nutanix, Inc. | NTNX | +18.1% | Benefit from VMware migrations and hybrid cloud.
    Zebra Technologies Corp. | ZBRA | +8.3% | Recovery in inventory and warehouse automation.
    NICE Ltd. | NICE | +8.0% | Steady growth in cloud-based customer experience.
    MicroStrategy | MSTR | +1.9% | Flat core software growth; focus remains on BTC.
    InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | -4.0% | Volatile revenue due to timing of patent licenses.
    Teradata Corporation | TDC | -5.0% | Decline in legacy revenue despite cloud growth.

    Key Observations:

    Hyper-Growth Leader: Palantir (PLTR) remains the outlier in this group, with growth accelerating due to the rapid adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).

    The “Observability” Cluster: Both Datadog and Dynatrace continue to post high double-digit growth, reflecting the sustained enterprise need for data monitoring in complex cloud environments.

    Value vs. Growth Divergence: Companies like Teradata and InterDigital show negative or flat top-line growth, as they are either navigating legacy transitions or rely on lumpier, non-recurring licensing cycles.

    US Earnings

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on US Earnings

    Earnings spotlight: Monday, April 27: Verizon.

    Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, April 28: Visa, Coca-Cola, Starbucks.

    Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, April 29: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, AbbVie, Qualcomm, Ford.

    Earnings spotlight: Thursday, April 30: Apple, Eli Lilly, Merck, Mastercard.

    Earnings spotlight: Friday, May 1: Exxon Mobil, Chevron.

    Intuitive Surgical

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Intuitive Surgical

    {NAS.ISRG} is a dominant leader in the robotic-assisted surgery market, known for its da Vinci surgical systems.

    Earnings Alert: Q1 2026

    • Release Date: Tomorrow, April 21, 2026, after market close.
    • Estimates: Analysts expect EPS of approximately $2.08 – $2.16 on revenue of $2.61 – $2.67 billion.

    Key Focus: Investors will be watching for updates on the rollout of the da Vinci 5* and commentary on 2026 procedure growth guidance (currently 13–15%).

    Fundamental Metrics

    • Market Cap: ~$166.65 Billion.
    • Valuation:

    * Forward P/E: 41.06x
    * Trailing P/E: 59.54x
    * Price-to-Book: 9.35x

    • Analyst Sentiment: Rated as a Buy (Average Rating: 1.9) with a median price target generally cited near $600, implying significant potential upside from current levels.

    Recent Developments & Catalysts
    FDA Expansions: In early 2026, the company received FDA clearance for the da Vinci 5for select cardiac procedures and recently expanded da Vinci SP* indications to include inguinal hernia and appendectomy.

    • Operational Milestone: The company reached a milestone of 20 million procedures performed globally in January 2026, reinforcing its massive “razor-and-blade” recurring revenue model (instruments and accessories).
    • Guidance Caution: The stock has seen some pressure in early 2026 due to conservative procedure growth guidance (13-15% vs. 18% in 2025), as the company laps tough year-over-year comparisons.

    Performance Context

    • 52-Week Range: $427.84 – $603.88.
    • Technical Trend: The stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average ($503.09), suggesting it is in a period of consolidation or correction ahead of its earnings results. It has underperformed the broader S&P 500 YTD by approximately 18%.

    Actionable Insight: ISRG remains a high-quality growth play, but current valuation multiples reflect high expectations. Tomorrow’s earnings call will be critical to determine if the 2026 growth deceleration is fully priced in.

    US Earnings

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on US Earnings

    Monday, April 20: Steel Dynamics.

    Tuesday, April 21: GE Aerospace, 3M, Halliburton, United Airlines.

    Wednesday, April 22: Tesla, Philip Morris), IBM, Boeing.

    Thursday, April 23: Intel, American Express, Blackstone.

    Friday, April 24: P&G.

    Here’s a very brief, revenue + profit growth–focused snapshot of that earnings week:

    Monday (Apr 20) – Steel Dynamics

    • Revenue: ~$5.2B (+19% YoY)
    • Profit (EPS): $2.78 (~+90% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Strong cyclical upswing — pricing + volumes drove outsized profit leverage.

    Tuesday (Apr 21) – Industrials & Cyclicals

    • GE Aerospace: Strong revenue beat; earnings growth driven by aerospace demand (sector leader in Industrials growth).
    • 3M: Modest growth; restructuring still limiting profit expansion.
    • Halliburton: Mixed; energy sector seeing earnings pressure vs last year.
    • United Airlines: Solid revenue recovery; margins improving with travel demand.

    Takeaway: Industrials strong; energy lagging.

    Wednesday (Apr 22) – Mixed Growth Profiles

    • Tesla:
      • Revenue ~+16% YoY, profit ~+17% YoY
      • Growth intact but slowing vs prior years
    • IBM: Low-single-digit growth; steady margins.
    • Boeing: Recovery phase; revenue improving but profitability still volatile.
    • Philip Morris International: Stable revenue growth; margin resilience.

    Takeaway: Growth present but more selective vs 2023–24 tech boom.

    Thursday (Apr 23) – Tech + Financial Strength

    • Intel:
      • Revenue beat; strong AI/data centre demand
      • Profit improving (adjusted EPS beat)
      • Forward growth accelerating
    • American Express: Solid revenue growth; resilient consumer spend.
    • Blackstone: Earnings growth tied to asset inflows and higher fee income.

    Takeaway: AI + financials driving earnings momentum.

    Friday (Apr 24) – Defensive Consumer

    • Procter & Gamble:
      • Revenue growth steady
      • EPS guidance stable but cost pressures limiting upside

    Takeaway: Defensive names = stable but low growth.

    Overall Week (Key Investment Signal)

    Laggards: Energy, defensive consumer

    Revenue growth: ~mid-to-high single digit overall (S&P ~10%)

    Earnings growth: ~mid-teens (~15%)

    Leaders: Industrials, AI/tech, materials