Category: US Markets

US Macro

A week after UK voters chose to leave the EU, a growing number of market commentators are arguing that the media, politicians and some economists exaggerated the impact that a “Brexit” vote would have on the UK economy and British assets. The frequent stream of reports about a second referendum, Scotland vetoing the decision to leave the EU, political infighting and UK never planning to invoke Article 50, suggest the financial media were firmly biased to the “remain” camp.  

In addition, caustic comments from EU officials about how to renegotiate trade and security agreements with the UK suggests that many well pensioned bureaucrats on the continent are very angry that: 1) a majority of UK voters were willing to fight the EU status quo. And 2) The UK Government is willing to honor the will of the UK voters. It’s clear that this type of pure democratic process doesn’t sit well with the unelected policymakers in Brussels.  

Social Media, on the other hand, has largely celebrated the “Brexit” vote as a revolution of grassroots politics and consolidating objections about wage stagnation, immigration politics and the lack of self-governance. This rebellious timbre of the referendum has reverberated into other regions of the world where similar anti-status quo movements are gaining popularity. 

US Macro

The widespread reaction to the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) has dramatically changed the technical conditions across the Foreign Exchange market. While the “Brexit” was clearly a political event, it has acutely altered the market’s “group psychology”; which is the cornerstone of technical analysis. 

For example, the GBP/USD traded from a new yearly high, at just above 1.5000, to its lowest level in 30 years in less than 8 hours; the widest trading range in the history of the pair. From a technical perspective, it’s reasonable to believe that stop levels and option positioning were all wiped out on Friday. In this sense, if price support is where buyers are enticed, and price resistance is where sellers offer supply, then technical levels of the GBP will have to be rebuilt over time.   

As a result of the breakdown of many technical components, volatility looks to be the name of the game for the short to mid-term. Fears that the UK’s exit will inspire other nations to do the same are not unwarranted, and FX investors should be cognizant that Brexit is not an uniquely European problem. All global financial markets have been propped up by central bank policy makers; especially from the ECB, FED and the BoJ.   

As such, the FX market may show a blithe response to most of the economic releases on this week’s schedule. However, now that the FED FUNDS futures market has entirely priced out any rate normalization for 2016, Tuesday’s US GDP report could get a rate adjustment back on the radar. The final reading for Q2 GDP is forecast to print at 1%, which is twice as strong as the last GDP data. In addition, US Consumer Confidence is due early Wednesday morning and is expected to show a sharp rebound to 93.1%.

US Macro

In less than a week, citizens of the UK will make their biggest decision in more than a generation when they go the polls to vote on whether to stay in the European Union (EU), or to leave it. It’s conceivable that the political and economic future of the entire 28 member EU could be reshaped by the June 23rd referendum. 

Those in favor of leaving the EU, known as the “Brexit” option, say EU elitist rules restrict UK companies and leaving would boost the UK economy. They also say that leaving the EU would give Britons control of their borders and limit immigration. Those campaigning to stay (including the PM David Cameron) paint a very grim picture of life outside the EU.  

The result of the vote could have acute and far reaching consequences not just for the British and EU economies, but also for global FX markets and G-7 stock markets in particular. At this point, the polls suggest that UK voters are spilt down the middle without an outright majority on either side. Further, it seems the only clear consensus is that a win for the Brexit camp would reshape the future of the UK and EU for decades to come……….the problem is that nobody knows exactly how.  

Over the last few months, it’s become evident that FED Chair Janet Yellen, along with other voting FOMC members, have placed more emphasis on the wages and unemployment components of the labor matrix, and less emphasis on the new jobs in reference to their “data dependent” analysis of the overall US economy.

However, after last Friday’s shocking 38,000 new jobs on the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number, it’s likely that Ms Yellen will make some direct reference to the data miss when she speaks at the World Affairs Council today in Philadelphia at 12:30 NY time.

After Friday’s steep sell off in the USDX, FX investors will be listening for comments which clarify whether the FED chief is looking at Friday’s report as an outlier, and not consistent with the vast majority of economic indicators, or as a signal that Q2 growth will not rebound as briskly as expected.

Our base case has been that a June rate adjustment was not particularly likely given the proximity to the UK referendum and the fact that FED officials have very little stomach for taking controversial positions. However, given the broader economic information set, we are reluctant to rule out a July rate hike and see no compelling reason not to expect the weakness in the May report to be a statistical fluke; which is not uncommon from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For example, In March of 2015 the headline NFP number was 84k, in December, 2013, there were 45k jobs created and in April 2012 job growth fell to 75k. In none of these cases did the disappointing headline number signal the end of the economic or labor cycle. In fact, in two of the four examples given, the following month’s headline NFP jobs growth was over 200k.

As a labor economist and experienced FED Governor, Ms Yellen will likely look past the noise of high frequency data and focus on the underlying positive growth signals. From that perspective, very little changed last Friday. Less than two weeks ago, Ms Yellen acknowledged that it might be appropriate to raise rates again in coming months. Without being too specific, if she simply maintains that type general assessment, it would be sufficient to keep the July FOMC meeting alive.

As such, with the ECB still expanding their QE and the Japanese economy still contracting, once the dust settles from last week’s terrible NFP report we expect the USD to re-emerge as the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile and recover last week’s losses.

Foreign Exchange investors who were looking for clarity from yesterday’s ECB policy announcement would have been disappointed as comments from Mario Draghi failed to drive the single currency beyond recent ranges. Although the EUR/USD posted a 1 week high of 1.1220 prior to the meeting, the pair gave up those gains after the press conference to settle at 1.1150 at the NY close.

And while the ECB officials didn’t say anything particularly negative about the financial conditions in the European Union, the reiteration of more possible stimulus, expansion of the current QE operations and fears over a “Brexit” vote was enough keep many traders on the sidelines.

Looking ahead to today’s US Non-Farm payroll report (NFP), there is a strong possibility that the recently settled Verizon strike could skew both the headline jobs growth number as well as the average hours worked components of the report.

The Verizon strike affected close to 40,000 workers at the Telco giant, but employment growth should still be strong enough to confirm a tightening labor market and support recent FOMC views that the FED is close to lifting the FED funds target soon.

According to a Reuter’s survey of economists, NFP likely increased by 165k in May after rising 160k in April. The jobless rate is forecast to drop by one-tenth of a point to 4.9%. The same report last week suggested that the month-long strike could slice 35,000 jobs from the headline number and without the strike employment for May would have risen to close to 200k.

The striking workers, who returned to work on Wednesday, were statistically regarded as unemployed since they did not receive a salary during the payrolls survey week.

On balance, it’s likely that as long as the hourly wages data prints in the positive .2% area and the unemployment rate is reported at 5.0% or lower, market participants will accept the report as consistent with a pick up in US growth in Q2 and support recent USD gains. In this sense, we suggest that there could be an asymmetrical response to a better-than-expected headline number.

The three week rally in the USD Index continued on Friday as FED chief, Janet Yellen, endorsed the notion of higher US rates in “coming months” and that growth in wages has finally caught up to the growth in the general labor market.

The shift in expectations for the resumption of the FED’s normalization of US interest rates has played an integral role in the recovery of the USD. And while a few FED officials have pointed to the UK referendum on June 23rd as a foreign threat, there have been several recent changes to open market pricing which suggest the FOMC is ready to move on rates sooner, rather than later.

As a rule of thumb, FX traders look at the short-end of the Treasury yield curve to gauge whether the trajectory of rates is suitable for a lift in the Federal Funds rate. In this respect, the implied yield of the August FED Funds futures contract has risen by 15 basis points since May 1st, while the US 2-year note yield has moved 20 basis points higher over the same period.

These data are widely published and fairly easy to follow even for novice investors. However, since the FED began its tapering operations back in October 2014, one of the most fundamental perquisites of the normalization process has been a contraction in the FED’s balance sheet.

The main open market policy tool for the FED to drain excess reserves from their balance sheet is called a Reverse Repurchase agreement, or “reverse REPO.” Since these agreements are transacted directly between the FED and FED approved commercial banks, the data can only be sourced from the Federal Reserve website and after the agreements are transacted.

As a point of reference, from October 2015 until the FED lifted the FED Funds target on December 16th, reserve balances at the Fed fell by $180 billion. Since the end of March 2016, reserve balances have fallen by over $120 billion; largely from reverse repos. And while this is not as large as the decrease that took place before the December normalization, it appears significant enough to claim that the FED does seem to be preparing for an upcoming increase in the Federal Funds target range.

As such, we suggest a long USD bias over the medium and longer term as the divergence of the US rate trajectory continues to move away from the rest of the G-7 Central Bank policies.

Going into the three-day Memorial Day holiday in the USA, FX traders have been largely sidelined in front of today’s preliminary Q2 GDP data. This will be the first look at what could possibly be a sharp Q2 rebound and extend the recent rally in the USD Index.

Based on some of the critical components of the GDP reading released over the last few weeks, the headline print is forecast to show a .8% growth rate; Retail Sales printed higher, Durable Goods orders were at 3-year high and weekly jobless claims have been tracking at a 20-year low.

Unfortunately, due to seasonal adjustments, indexing and lags in data collection, the Associative Property of mathematics is not entirely useful in forecasting GDP data and there is a risk that a weaker report unwinds some of the recent USD gains into the long weekend.   However, we estimate the likelihood of a terrible, USD negative, GDP report is low and suggest maintaining a long USD bias into the release with the potential for the Greenback to reach new highs for the week.

The Group of 7 finance minister’s meeting came and went with nothing more than the same well-worn bromides meant to create the illusion that the leaders of the global financial world are actually solving problems.

Still, the combination of stronger US data and signals from the FOMC that the normalization of rates can still be expected in 2016 helped the Greenback extend its recovery. Since May 3rd, the USD Index has traded higher for three consecutive weeks and gained ground on all the major pairs last week except for the Sterling.