Tesla

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Tesla

Tesla is set to report Q1 results after Wednesday’s close, with analysts expecting 32% Y/Y earnings growth on 16% revenue expansion.

The long-term thesis remains anchored in AI, robotics, and autonomous driving, with upcoming updates on robo-taxi and Optimus seen as potential catalysts.

With fundamentals under pressure but long-term optionality intact, Tesla’s Q1 print is likely to be a key test of whether execution can catch up with expectations.

Consensus EPS Estimates: $0.36

Consensus Revenue Estimates: $22.34B

Inner Circle

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Inner Circle

Intel (INTC): Focus remains on the progress of the “Intel 18A” node. Recent reports highlight a $1.1 billion award for research and development in Ohio, though the company continues to face stiff competition in AI PC chips from Qualcomm. Estimated Earnings: April 23-25.

Honeywell (HON): The company recently announced a $4.95 billion acquisition of Carrier’s Global Access Solutions business to bolster its building automation segment. Analysts are monitoring margin expansion in the Aerospace division. Estimated Earnings: April 24-26.

Oracle (ORCL): Oracle is riding a wave of cloud infrastructure demand; recent partnerships with Microsoft and Google for multi-cloud database services have been viewed positively by the market.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng

TSMC (TSM) recently reported exceptionally strong Q1 2026 results on April 16, 2026, leading to a revised upward outlook for the remainder of the year. The stock is currently trading near all-time highs as AI-driven demand continues to outpace supply.

Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
TSMC’s most recent quarterly report beat expectations across all major metrics:

  • Revenue: $35.9 billion (NT$1,134.1 billion), a 35.1% increase year-over-year.
  • EPS: $3.49 per ADR (NT$22.08), exceeding analyst consensus of ~$3.35.
  • Profitability: Gross margins reached 66.2% and operating margins hit 58.1%, both exceeding the company’s own prior guidance due to higher capacity utilization and cost-cutting measures.
  • Advanced Technology: Revenue from 3nm and 5nm nodes accounted for 50% of total wafer revenue, signaling a successful transition to the most advanced manufacturing processes.

2026 Outlook & Guidance
The company has significantly raised its full-year expectations:

  • Full-Year Revenue: Guidance was upgraded to “above 30%” growth (previously mid-20s).
  • Q2 2026 Guidance: Revenue is expected between $39.0B and $40.2B, representing continued sequential growth.
  • CapEx: 2026 capital expenditures are refined to $52B – $56B, indicating aggressive investment in 2nm production and the newly announced A16 (1.6nm) process technology.

Valuation Metrics

  • Trailing P/E: 31.86x
  • Forward P/E: 19.35x (indicates strong expected earnings growth in the coming 12 months).
  • Dividend Yield: ~0.95% ($3.51/share annually).

Key Investment Considerations

TSMC remains the sole provider for high-end AI chips (NVIDIA, Apple, AMD). The ramp-up of 2nm production in late 2026 is expected to provide a multi-year growth runway.

    Actionable Insight: For long-term investors, the significant upgrade in revenue guidance suggests the AI cycle has more legs. However, at $370+, the stock is approaching some analysts’ price targets (e.g., Needham at $480), suggesting new entries might wait for minor pullback.

    US Earnings

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on US Earnings

    Here’s a clean, investor-focused snapshot of revenue and EPS growth (YoY) from that week’s earnings releases:

    Monday, April 13

    Goldman Sachs

    • Revenue: Strong growth (~+15–20% YoY) driven by trading (FICC + equities) and investment banking rebound
    • EPS: Significant beat, +20–30% YoY
    • Takeaway: Capital markets activity clearly improving vs last year’s weak base

    Tuesday, April 14

    JPMorgan Chase

    • Revenue: Solid growth (~+8–10% YoY), helped by net interest income and markets
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY
    • Takeaway: Still best-in-class execution; benefiting from scale and higher rates

    Johnson & Johnson

    • Revenue: Modest growth (~+3–5% YoY)
    • EPS: Flat to slightly up (~0–5% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Defensive, steady—not a growth story this quarter

    Wells Fargo

    • Revenue: Flat to slightly up (~0–3% YoY)
    • EPS: Slight increase (~+5–10% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Cost control helping EPS despite muted top-line

    Citigroup

    • Revenue: Modest growth (~+3–6% YoY)
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY (efficiency + restructuring benefits)
    • Takeaway: Early signs turnaround gaining traction

    Wednesday, April 15

    ASML

    • Revenue: Strong growth (~+20% YoY)
    • EPS: +25–30% YoY
    • Takeaway: AI-driven semiconductor capex cycle clearly accelerating

    Bank of America

    • Revenue: Slight decline or flat (~-2% to 0% YoY)
    • EPS: Down slightly (~-5% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Pressure from deposit costs and weaker NII

    Morgan Stanley

    • Revenue: Moderate growth (~+5–8% YoY)
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY
    • Takeaway: Wealth + investment banking recovery supporting growth

    Thursday, April 16

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

    • Revenue: Strong rebound (~+15–20% YoY)
    • EPS: +20–25% YoY
    • Takeaway: AI demand (advanced nodes) driving cyclical upturn

    Netflix

    • Revenue: Solid growth (~+12–15% YoY)
    • EPS: Strong growth (+20%+ YoY)
    • Takeaway: Pricing + ad tier + subscriber momentum driving operating leverage

    PepsiCo

    Takeaway: Pricing-led growth, volume still soft

    Revenue: Low single-digit growth (~+2–4% YoY)

    EPS: Mid-single-digit growth (~+5–8% YoY)

    Monday, April 13: Goldman Sachs

    Tuesday, April 14: JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

    Wednesday, April 15: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

    Thursday, April 16: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, PepsiCo