Alumina is under Algo Engine buy conditions and is a current holding in our ASX 100 model portfolio.

We see price support building at $1.38 and suggest traders watch the short-term momentum indicators and stay “long” AWC whilst the indicators trend higher.

Stop loss on a break below $1.38.

Alumina – Algo Sell Signal

Alumina is now under Algo Engine sell conditions and we expect the share price to struggle below the $2.80 level.

Alumina prices are likely to weaken over the next 12 months which will weigh on the cash receipts from the AWAC joint venture.

2018 net profit after tax was reported at US$690m. AWC declared a total dividend for the year of US$0.227, which was ahead of market expectations.

Stay short AWC with a stop loss above the $2.80 resistance.



Algo Buy Signals – AWC & BSL

Recent Algo Engine buy signals in BSL and AWC have performed well, with prices rallies of 20%+ in the past few months.

China has been ramping up production of both alumina and aluminium in the lead-up to potential capacity cuts. Alumina Ltd (AWC) is potentially the largest beneficiary, given it is a pure-play on the industry.

Rio Tinto and South32 also seem well-placed to benefit. We will reconsider these names on the next Algo Engine buy signal.

Chart – BSL

Chart – AWC