Wesfarmers – Limited Growth

Over the last four years, Wesfarmers’ share price has traded in an $8.00 range between $38.00 and $46.00. Although the diversified company has consistently paid out fully franked dividends and has been yielding around 5% over the past few years, the lack of share price appreciation has been a concern for longer-term shareholders.

While the Bunnings division of the company has been gaining market share with the demise of Masters, it seems the market rates Wesfarmers earnings lower reflecting a view that the Coles division faces increased competition from the discount chain, Aldi.

Wesfamers has also entered the UK hardware sector with the acquisition of Homebase January of this year, which has yet to show a similar level of success as the Bunnings division.

We don’t expect the limited upside of the share price to improve anytime soon and will continue to employ the covered call strategy on rallies up to the $43.00 area; collecting the franking credits, a dividend of over $2.00 per share and the option premium. Our strategy is helping to boost cash flow to 13%+ per annum

Chart - WES
Chart – WES

 

Gold Hits 10-Month Low

Gold traded at fresh 10-month low at 1151.00 as a stronger US Dollar and the prospects of higher US interest rates continues to pressure the yellow metal.

Since trading as high as $1335.00 on November 9th, Gold has lost close to $200.00 per ounce. And while technical indicators are showing oversold conditions on the daily charts, we still see scope to test the $1100.00 support level last seen in January.

NCM - New Crest Mining
NCM – New Crest Mining

Flight Centre – Short Signal

We’ve been on the short side of Flight Centre for most of 2016.

The share price rebounded from their early November low of $29.50 to close last week at just under $33.00. However, structural headwinds, recent earnings shortfalls, and overly optimistic guidance suggest clear skies are not ahead for the firm.

On November 4th, Flight Centre indicated that 1H 2017 profits before tax (PBT) would decline 18 to 28%. The company maintained an FY17 earnings guidance of $320m – $350m. We believe this is overly optimistic and unlikely to be achieved given international flight price deflation.

Gradual ongoing selling pressure in FLT could see a low around $28 in early to mid 2017.

Chart - FLT
Chart – FLT

 

Healthcare – Watch For Buying Interest

Healthcare names are being sold off due to their high PE ratios and negative sentiment towards the sector, which is permeating from the US healthcare stocks leading the sell off.

Keep these on your watch list as the selling will likely exhaust and we’ll look for entry levels triggered by the algo engine.

Chart - RHC
Chart – RHC
Chart - CSL
Chart – CSL
Chart - COH
Chart – COH