A2 Milk – Call Options Jump 200%

The New Zealand Overseas Investment Office (OIO) has given approval to A2Milk’s plan to buy 75% of Mataura Valley Milk.

Full-year 2021 sales are expected to be between $NZ1.2 billion to $NZ1.25 billion and EBITDA margins will fall from 30% to 12%.

We’ve closed out the August $6.00 strike calls at $0.92 after purchasing them in early June at $0.30.

Tabcorp – Demerger

Tabcorp Holdings will demerge its lotteries and keno business. The lotteries and keno business has a low capital intensity and a track record of strong cash flows.

Wagering & Gaming Co will remain the largest gaming services provider in Australia.

Gold Roads – Buy

Gold Road Resources is now under Algo Engine buy conditions.

Gold Road anticipates gold production for the 2021 calendar year will be within the lower half of guidance (260,000 to 300,000 ounces on a 100% basis).

AISC for the 2021 calendar year is anticipated to be between $1,325 and $1,475 per attributable ounce, with lower June 2021 quarter production and higher maintenance and labour costs the main contributors to an increase from the guidance of between A$1,225 – A$1,350.

FY21 revenue forecast is for $300mil generating EBIT of $100mil.

Northern Star – Buy

Northern Star Resources is under Algo Engine buy conditions and remains the only gold stock in our Algo Engine model portfolio.

If inflation is a temporary phenomenon caused by pent-up demand and supply chain issues, it is likely the 10-year yield will run into resistance and gold will soon find renewed buying interest.

Buy NST @ $10.00

Metcash – Share Buyback

Metcash has launched an off-market buyback of up to $175m and increased its dividend payout ratio to 70%.

Metcash is likely to deliver low levels of earnings growth within the 2 – 3% range. The earnings are well supported by improving trends in hardware and liquor. The stock trades on a forward dividend yield of 4.8%.

We highlight that the Algo Engine switched to buy conditions in May at $3.40.

Our sector preference remains Woolworths.