Watch Monday’s Opportunities in Review Webinar
The recording from Monday’s webinar is available below:
Opportunities in Review Webinar – Next Monday
For our next Live Webinar, I will review high conviction ASX and US buy and sell opportunities from the recent algo engine and model portfolio signals.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 23rd of March
- Time: 12:30pm NSW/VIC time, 11:30am Qld time, Midday SA time, 9:30am WA time
- Duration: 45 min
To be sent the invitation, you must register your details here.
ASX Opportunities in Review – Webinar Replay
If you missed yesterday’s webinar, then you can watch it below.
Register for Monday’s Webinar
In our next webinar, I will review high conviction ASX buy and sell opportunities from the recent algo engine and model portfolio signals.
Opportunities in Review
If you cannot make the time, then register anyway and we’ll email you a link to watch the replay.
Expect More Debt Stress From Italy
One of the first lessons that we learned working on a dealing desk is that instability in sovereign bond markets can create sudden turmoil across a wide range of financial products.
The reason for this is because the aggregate amount of global bonds outstanding dwarfs the value of all the shares of stock in the world, combined.
Last Tuesday, global financial markets were spun into a frenzy as Italian sovereign bond yields exploded to the upside.
The catalyst for the move was President Mattarella’s rejection of the new government’s candidate for Finance minister, Paolo Savona.
Mr Savona is an outspoken critic of the EU and the Euro currency
As a result, Italian 2-yr bond yields rose from .68% to 2.42% in one day. That’s a rise of 250% in just 24 hours!!
Looking past the political aspect of this week’s events, Italy is well on its way to becoming the next financial basket-case in Europe.
Regardless of who governs Italy, the country will need to re-finance over 350 billion worth of debt maturities and close to 300 billion worth of non-performing loans over the next five years.
We consider the ongoing debt stress in Italy as a potential source of contagion for global equity markets, including the ASX 200 Index.
Italian Sovereign Yields
Miss last night’s Webinar? Watch it here.
Did your miss our Webinar last night on our Charts and the Algo Engine? You can watch the replay below.
Our final webinar in the 3 part series will be held on Wednesday the 13th of December 2017 at 12:30pm QLD time, 1:30pm NSW/VIC time and 1:30am WA time. This is a daytime session. The topic will be Trading ASX 50 CFDs with Saxo Go.
Missed last night’s Webinar?
If you missed our Webinar last night, then you can catch up by watching it here.
Our next Webinar is this Thursday night – Register Now.
Investor Signals – Charts & Algo Engine Explained
Join us in this webinar as we explain the new features and best ways to navigate through the research, charts, algo engine & new model portfolio features. You’ll also be invited to a 30-day free trial of the technology.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 7th December 2017
- Time: 7pm Qld Time, 8pm NSW/Vic Time, 5pm WA Time
- Duration: 45min
Don’t miss the opportunity to build your understanding on how to benefit from our new technology, as your window to the market.
Trading ASX 50 CFD’s with Saxo Go
Join us in this webinar as we look at shorter-term trading strategies for both long & short positions & we review how we utilise the Saxo Trader Go platform to take advantage of trading opportunities within the ASX top 50 stocks. We explore the features, how to place and manage orders and look at how short term traders can use the Investor Signals’ research to trade both long and short signals using CFD’s.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 13th December 2017
- Time: 12:30pm Qld Time, 1:30pm NSW/Vic Time, 10:30am WA Time (Daytime Session)
- Duration: 45min
Don’t miss the opportunity to learn how we apply proven techniques to shorter term trading on ASX 50 CFD’s.
December Webinars
In December, we are conducting the following webinars. Please register your interest by using the register link below. We will email you, one hour before each Webinar begins, with the link to join in.
Global Equities Overview and ASX 2018 Market Outlook
Join us in this webinar as we recap on the major trends of 2017 and explore which ones will continue in 2018 and which ones have come to an end. Find out what stocks to add and what stocks to remove from your portfolio, before it’s too late.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 5th December 2017
- Time: 7pm Qld Time, 8pm NSW/Vic Time, 5pm WA Time
- Duration: 45 min
Don’t miss the opportunity to build your understanding of the big trends impacting equities and, more importantly, which stocks should and shouldn’t be in your portfolio heading into 2018.
Investor Signals – Charts & Algo Engine Explained
Join us in this webinar as we explain the new features and best ways to navigate through the research, charts, algo engine & new model portfolio features. You’ll also be invited to a 30-day free trial of the technology.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 7th December 2017
- Time: 7pm Qld Time, 8pm NSW/Vic Time, 5pm WA Time
- Duration: 45min
Don’t miss the opportunity to build your understanding on how to benefit from our new technology, as your window to the market.
Trading ASX 50 CFD’s with Saxo Go
Join us in this webinar as we look at shorter-term trading strategies for both long & short positions & we review how we utilise the Saxo Trader Go platform to take advantage of trading opportunities within the ASX top 50 stocks. We explore the features, how to place and manage orders and look at how short term traders can use the Investor Signals’ research to trade both long and short signals using CFD’s.
- Host: Leon Hinde, Head of Equity Strategy at Investor Signals
- Date: 13th December 2017
- Time: 12:30pm Qld Time, 1:30pm NSW/Vic Time, 10:30am WA Time (Daytime Session)
- Duration: 45min
Don’t miss the opportunity to learn how we apply proven techniques to shorter term trading on ASX 50 CFD’s.
Trump’s Tax Plan: A Boom Or A Bust?
It’s almost been a year since Donald Trump was elected to the White House.
One of the key promises Mr Trump made to voters during his campaign was for the “largest tax cut” since the early 1980’s.
Not including the vague leaks over the last three months, a tangible, nine-page brief of the tax reform plan was just released last Wednesday.
Just a few of the key features of the tax plan include: lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, dropping the number of personal tax brackets from 5 to 3 and a one-time repatriation tax, designed to bring corporate profits back from overseas.
From a market perspective, it’s the repatriation tax that has the financial media the most excited.
It’s been estimated that US multi-national corporations have somewhere between $3.5 to $5 trillion domiciled offshore. The prospect of having these funds sent back to the USA, with a maximum tax rate 10%, is very bullish for both the USD and US stocks.
At this point, the biggest question for investors is: will this tax reform plan become law and have a positive impact on US equities and the USD, or will the proposal become another victim of the political gridlock which has permeated Washington DC since Mr Trump took office?
Over the last few days that the tax proposal has been out in the public, politicians from both sides of the aisle have criticized various provisions and changes to the tax code.
As expected, core Democrats are calling the plan a tax cut for the rich at the expense of the middle class, and the small group of Republican “deficit hawks” have refused to support the changes until they are scored by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
In this context, “scoring” means calculating how the proposed changes to the tax code will impact the federal deficit, relative to the spending and entitlement costs allocated in the Federal budget.
In our view, it’s this last point which is the biggest hurdle to any meaningful tax reform this year. The simple problem is that the CBO can’t score the tax plan against the 2018 Federal budget……….because there is no 2018 budget.
In fact, there has not been a legislated budget passed in the US since 2009, with the Federal government currently operating under another Continuing Resolution which will expire in December.
This means that before any tax reform plan can move to the Congress for a vote, a budget for 2018 must be passed.
The chart below illustrates the monthly closing price of the VIX volatility Index in 2017, relative to the average prices dating back to 2004. It’s clear that the monthly volatility has been below trend in every month this year, with September closing almost 10 big figures lower than the average.
With equity valuations at extreme levels versus forward earnings per share, we expect some market event to trigger an increase in volatility back to the historic averages. However, at this point, we don’t expect that event to be the recently released tax reform proposal.
Monthly VIX Index
US Debt Crisis Averted………Until December
US Stock indexes may have dodged a bullet today when President Trump defied his White House advisors and sided with Democrats to defer the debt ceiling debate until December.
Using the legal structure of a “continued resolution” linked to emergency aid to victims of hurricane Harvey, the proposal would suspend the borrowing cap, currently at $19.9 trillion, until December 15th.
And while this manoeuvre calmed the nerves of T-Bill investors into the October maturity, the fear premium of a government shutdown has just been transferred to the December maturity.
Over the next few days we expect to hear more about how this political tactic will impact the administration’s legislative goals on tax reform, infrastructure programs and border security.
The prime risk to US equity markets is that credit agencies view this failure to address the debt ceiling as cause to downgrade US Sovereign debt ratings.
In short, “kicking the can” down the road has not made US assets less risky at current levels.
December T-Bill Yields
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