The Yield Basket We’ve Been Tracking

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on The Yield Basket We’ve Been Tracking

Over the last two months, bond markets have been repricing the probability of a US rate increase. During that time, we’ve watched the US10YR yields trade up from 1.3% to 1.9% . As a consequence, money managers have sold-off defensive yield names. This has been most evident in ASX 50 names within the infrastructure and property sectors.

We maintain a positive interest in these names as the current share prices now have many of the yields offering 100 basis points, (or 1%), more than they were trading at 2 months ago.

WFD and GMG are now trading back on 4% yield, whereas TCL, SYD, GPT and SCG are on average trading near 5% yield.

The December FOMC rate decision meeting will likely be the catalyst for a  bounce, however, we’re not expecting these names to recapture the recent highs. Therefore, we’ll look to sell the rally into the early part of 2017. The algorithm engine will track these names and I’ll be certain to alert you to the next lower structural high, but for the time being, you may want to position around the short term bounce which could offer up to a 10% rally.

Chart - GMG
Chart – GMG
gpt
Chart – GPT
scg
Chart – SCG
sgp
Chart – SGP

 

wfd
Chart – WFD

 

Chart - TCL
Chart – TCL
Chart - SYD
Chart – SYD

Transurban Group 1Q17 Traffic Growth

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Transurban Group 1Q17 Traffic Growth

Overall the traffic results for TCL.ASX were in line with expectation. New projects over the next 2 – 3 years help to underpin the valuation, along with the rising dividend.

We expect to see the traffic growth rate steadying, which then requires a favourable back drop in bonds, i.e slow gradual interest rate rises in the US, to allow TCL to track sideways.

We’ve been buyers on the recent dip and we see TCL as a sell back above $11.75. For portfolio investors it will pay to cover TCL with an $11.75 call into next year with a view towards collecting the $0.25 December dividend plus the call premium.

Fy17 revenue of$2.2b, on EBITDA of $1.65b, DPS $0.50 places the stock on a forward yield of 4.7%. Fy18 DPS should increase by a further $0.05 to $0.55 per share.

TCL.ASX

tcl

 

Property Exposure – Are You Watching?

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Property Exposure – Are You Watching?

The recent market rotation towards growth assets and in particular, materials and financials, has resulted in selling utilities and property trusts. In many cases, these names have seen 10 to 20% correction.

The following post takes a quick look at some of the relevant chart patterns.

SCG.ASX (forward yield 4.9%)

scg

SGP.ASX (forward yield 5.5%)

sgp

WFD.ASX (forward yield 3.5%)

wfd

DXS.ASX (forward yield 5.2%)

dxs

GMG.ASX (forward yield 3.7%)

gmg

GPT.ASX (forward yield 5%)

gpt

MGR.ASX

mgr

On the utilities, we think that both Sydney Airports and Transurban should be back on the radar and maybe looking oversold.

SYD.ASX (forward yield 5%)

syd

TCL.ASX (forward yield 4.8%)

tcl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long TCL

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Long TCL

Long TCL.ASX

TCL

TCL reported 4Q16 traffic – trend remains positive for NSW, some softening is emerging in Melbourne and Brisbane. FY16 Proportional revenue across Australian roads was $1.7 billion. Look for FY17 dividend to increase from $0.45 in FY16 to $0.50 in FY17. This places TCL on a forward yield of 4.2%.

TCL is close to full value short term (12 month outlook) and should be complemented with a $12.70 covered call into March. We’ve collected an additional $0.50 for this call option and we expect to remain exposed to the $0.22 cent dividend in December. This trade allows for some capital gain if exercised. If TCL trades sideways, a combination of the dividend and the call option income creates approximately 10% cash flow on a stand still basis.