Crunch Time For US Earnings

US earnings season will go into full swing next week with several DOW components and high-capitalization  S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings.

Thus far, the results have been mixed with IBM missing badly and forward guidance on the major US banks showing concerns for future revenue growth.

The chart below shows that the expectations of S&P earnings, relative to the current pricing of the S&P 500 index, are very much out of line.

If next week’s earnings reports don’t exceed expectations, we could see further downside range extension on the SP 500 index, which could pressure the XJO index lower.

We have been looking at the May 5800 XJO puts as a short-term portfolio hedging instrument for a move lower in the local market.

We have also been buying the BetaShare BBOZ inverse exchange traded fund. Shares in BBOZ gain value as the local market trades lower.

XJO – Chart Update

We’ve been cautious of the resource names rolling over from the recent highs and the potential negative impact on the overall XJO index. It appears that the broader Australian market may be in the early stages of a  price correction.

Also, the Australian banks appear fully valued given the low revenue and profit growth outlook across the next 12 to 18 months.

Chart – XJO

XJO – Chart Update

On the 7th of February the XJO index created a new higher low formation as buying support returned and the index rallied from the 5582 low, back to retest the trend high on Friday, when the index closed at 5805.

Currently, ASX 200 stocks which have reported, show an average revenue growth of 3.2% and underlying earnings per share growth of 6.5%. This is the first return to earnings growth in 3 years.

Chart – XJO