Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng

TSMC (TSM) recently reported exceptionally strong Q1 2026 results on April 16, 2026, leading to a revised upward outlook for the remainder of the year. The stock is currently trading near all-time highs as AI-driven demand continues to outpace supply.

Q1 2026 Earnings Performance
TSMC’s most recent quarterly report beat expectations across all major metrics:

  • Revenue: $35.9 billion (NT$1,134.1 billion), a 35.1% increase year-over-year.
  • EPS: $3.49 per ADR (NT$22.08), exceeding analyst consensus of ~$3.35.
  • Profitability: Gross margins reached 66.2% and operating margins hit 58.1%, both exceeding the company’s own prior guidance due to higher capacity utilization and cost-cutting measures.
  • Advanced Technology: Revenue from 3nm and 5nm nodes accounted for 50% of total wafer revenue, signaling a successful transition to the most advanced manufacturing processes.

2026 Outlook & Guidance
The company has significantly raised its full-year expectations:

  • Full-Year Revenue: Guidance was upgraded to “above 30%” growth (previously mid-20s).
  • Q2 2026 Guidance: Revenue is expected between $39.0B and $40.2B, representing continued sequential growth.
  • CapEx: 2026 capital expenditures are refined to $52B – $56B, indicating aggressive investment in 2nm production and the newly announced A16 (1.6nm) process technology.

Valuation Metrics

  • Trailing P/E: 31.86x
  • Forward P/E: 19.35x (indicates strong expected earnings growth in the coming 12 months).
  • Dividend Yield: ~0.95% ($3.51/share annually).

Key Investment Considerations

TSMC remains the sole provider for high-end AI chips (NVIDIA, Apple, AMD). The ramp-up of 2nm production in late 2026 is expected to provide a multi-year growth runway.

    Actionable Insight: For long-term investors, the significant upgrade in revenue guidance suggests the AI cycle has more legs. However, at $370+, the stock is approaching some analysts’ price targets (e.g., Needham at $480), suggesting new entries might wait for minor pullback.

    US Earnings

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on US Earnings

    Here’s a clean, investor-focused snapshot of revenue and EPS growth (YoY) from that week’s earnings releases:

    Monday, April 13

    Goldman Sachs

    • Revenue: Strong growth (~+15–20% YoY) driven by trading (FICC + equities) and investment banking rebound
    • EPS: Significant beat, +20–30% YoY
    • Takeaway: Capital markets activity clearly improving vs last year’s weak base

    Tuesday, April 14

    JPMorgan Chase

    • Revenue: Solid growth (~+8–10% YoY), helped by net interest income and markets
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY
    • Takeaway: Still best-in-class execution; benefiting from scale and higher rates

    Johnson & Johnson

    • Revenue: Modest growth (~+3–5% YoY)
    • EPS: Flat to slightly up (~0–5% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Defensive, steady—not a growth story this quarter

    Wells Fargo

    • Revenue: Flat to slightly up (~0–3% YoY)
    • EPS: Slight increase (~+5–10% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Cost control helping EPS despite muted top-line

    Citigroup

    • Revenue: Modest growth (~+3–6% YoY)
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY (efficiency + restructuring benefits)
    • Takeaway: Early signs turnaround gaining traction

    Wednesday, April 15

    ASML

    • Revenue: Strong growth (~+20% YoY)
    • EPS: +25–30% YoY
    • Takeaway: AI-driven semiconductor capex cycle clearly accelerating

    Bank of America

    • Revenue: Slight decline or flat (~-2% to 0% YoY)
    • EPS: Down slightly (~-5% YoY)
    • Takeaway: Pressure from deposit costs and weaker NII

    Morgan Stanley

    • Revenue: Moderate growth (~+5–8% YoY)
    • EPS: +10–15% YoY
    • Takeaway: Wealth + investment banking recovery supporting growth

    Thursday, April 16

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

    • Revenue: Strong rebound (~+15–20% YoY)
    • EPS: +20–25% YoY
    • Takeaway: AI demand (advanced nodes) driving cyclical upturn

    Netflix

    • Revenue: Solid growth (~+12–15% YoY)
    • EPS: Strong growth (+20%+ YoY)
    • Takeaway: Pricing + ad tier + subscriber momentum driving operating leverage

    PepsiCo

    Takeaway: Pricing-led growth, volume still soft

    Revenue: Low single-digit growth (~+2–4% YoY)

    EPS: Mid-single-digit growth (~+5–8% YoY)

    Monday, April 13: Goldman Sachs

    Tuesday, April 14: JPMorgan, J&J, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

    Wednesday, April 15: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

    Thursday, April 16: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, PepsiCo

    4D Medical

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on 4D Medical

    4Dmedical

    Price Movement: Shares surged as much as 38% in early trade, reaching a record high of $6.40.

    The primary catalyst for today’s rally is the announcement that 4DMedical’s flagship CT:VQ™ technology has been deployed at the Mayo Clinic in the United States.

    • Significance: Mayo Clinic is globally recognized as one of the world’s leading healthcare institutions. This partnership is viewed by the market as a “landmark moment” and a top-tier endorsement of 4DMedical’s respiratory imaging technology.
    • Agreement Details: The clinic will integrate CT:VQ into clinical workflows for ventilation and perfusion analysis, allowing clinicians to evaluate the technology across multiple use cases.

    ### Market Reaction

    Commercial Momentum: This marks the company’s sixth major U.S. deployment in just seven months since receiving FDA clearance in September 2025. Other major sites include the Cleveland Clinic, Stanford, UC San Diego Health, University of Chicago Medicine, and the University of Miami.

    The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

    Posted on | by Algo Engine | Leave a Comment on The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) Common is under Algo Engine buy conditions.

    Goldman Sachs reported strong full-year 2025 results on January 15, 2026:

    • Full-Year Revenue: $58.28 billion.
    • Full-Year Net Earnings: $17.18 billion ($51.32 per share, a 27% year-over-year increase).
    • Q4 2025 Results: The firm reported an EPS of $14.01, significantly beating the $11.62 analyst consensus, despite a revenue miss ($13.45B vs. $14.49B expected).
    • One-Time Impact: The revenue miss was largely due to a $2.26 billion write-down related to the transition of its Apple Card credit portfolio.

    Valuation Metrics

    P/E Ratio (Trailing): Currently between 15.7x and 17.6x, which is modestly higher than its 10-year

    Video Games & Esports ETF

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Video Games & Esports ETF

    Betashares Video Games and Esports Strong conviction Buy with stop loss at $14.68

    Update 17/3:

    The ETF is highly international, with close to 100% exposure to international equities (primarily USA and Japan). Key holdings typically include:

    • Roblox (RBLX)
    • Nintendo (7974.JP)
    • Electronic Arts (EA)
    • Take-Two Interactive
    • Bandai Namco

    ### Performance Summary

    3-Year Return: ~ 21.3% p.a. (showing strong

    1-Year Return: ~ -4.92% (as of late Feb 2026).

    Video Games & Esports ETF

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Video Games & Esports ETF

    Betashares Video Games and Esports Strong conviction Buy with stop loss at $14.68

    The ETF is highly international, with close to 100% exposure to international equities (primarily USA and Japan). Key holdings typically include:

    • Roblox (RBLX)
    • Nintendo (7974.JP)
    • Electronic Arts (EA)
    • Take-Two Interactive
    • Bandai Namco

    ### Performance Summary

    3-Year Return: ~ 21.3% p.a. (showing strong

    1-Year Return: ~ -4.92% (as of late Feb 2026).

    IAG

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on IAG

    Insurance Australia Group is rated “hold”.

    Increased buying activity in IAG.ASX over the last 10 days (approx. March 5 – March 15, 2026) is driven by a combination of corporate capital management, dividend timing, and a market reassessment of the insurance sector’s valuation.

    ### 1. Active $200M Share Buy-Back
    The most direct cause of increased buying is IAG’s ongoing on-market share buy-back.

    • Volume: Daily ASX notifications show consistent repurchasing. As of March 16, IAG reported more than 1.7 million shares had been bought back in the recent period.
    • Impact: This provides a steady baseline of “forced” buying volume, supporting the share price and reducing the total supply of shares.

    ### 2. Interim Dividend Payment
    IAG paid its 12.0 cents per share interim dividend on March 13, 2026.

    • Reinvestment: Many institutional and retail investors automatically reinvest dividends back into the stock, particularly through Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRP), which creates a concentrated spike in buying demand around the payment date.
    • Yield Attraction: At current levels, the dividend yield remains a key draw for income-focused investors looking for “defensive” financial exposure.

    ### 3. Rebound from “AI Sell-off” (Mean Reversion)
    In early March, insurance stocks (including IAG, SUN, and QBE) faced selling pressure due to fears that AI would disrupt traditional underwriting and compress margins.

    • Overreaction: Over the last 10 days, market sentiment has shifted to the view that this sell-off was overdone. Analysts have highlighted that IAG was trading at a ~12% discount to its fair value (est. $8.23 vs current $7.25).
    • Recovery: The stock has rallied 10.35% in the last 7 days, climbing from a low of $6.39 to approximately $7.25.

    ### 4. Positive FY26 Guidance Upgrades
    Confidence has been bolstered by IAG’s structural growth following its RACQI acquisition.

    Profitability: Management expects a reported insurance profit of $1.55 billion – $1.75 billion, signaling that premium increases are successfully offsetting claims inflation and weather-related costs.

    Growth: The company recently upgraded its FY26 Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth target to approximately 10%.

    Whitehaven Coal

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Whitehaven Coal

    Whitehaven Coal is open position in the ASX200 Trade Table.

    As an investor looking at Whitehaven Coal (WHC.ASX) in March 2026, here are the critical updates and fundamental metrics you should know following the recent H1 FY26 results and significant credit rating news.

    ### 1. Key Catalysts & Recent News

    • Credit Rating Milestone (March 12, 2026): Whitehaven recently secured investment-grade credit ratings from all three major agencies (S&P: BB+, Fitch: BB+, Moody’s: Ba1), with a stable outlook. This is a major turning point that allows the company to refinance its $1.1 billion acquisition facility on much more favorable terms, potentially saving $30–$40 million in annual interest costs.
    • Capital Management: An interim fully franked dividend of 4.0 cents per share was paid today (March 13, 2026). Additionally, the company has launched a new $32 million share buy-back program through June 2026, signaling management’s view that the stock remains undervalued.
    • Asset Integration: The integration of the Daunia and Blackwater metallurgical coal mines (acquired from BHP) is progressing well, diversifying Whitehaven’s revenue toward higher-margin steelmaking coal.

    ### 2. Fundamental Valuation Metrics
    Whitehaven currently appears undervalued relative to its historical averages and industry peers:

    • P/E Ratio: ~11.0x – 12.4x (Industry average is closer to 20x).
    • EV/EBITDA: ~5.4x (Significant discount to the industry median of ~8.2x).
    • Price to Book (P/B): ~1.34x.
    • Intrinsic Value: Analysts estimate a DCF fair value between $11.30 and $14.45, implying potential upside from the current price (~$9.05).

    ### 3. H1 FY26 Earnings Recap (Feb 19, 2026)

    • Revenue: $2.5 billion (Down from $3.4B in H1 FY25 due to lower year-on-year prices).
    • Underlying EBITDA: $446 million.
    • Statutory Profit: $69 million (Impacted by non-recurring items; underlying loss was $19M).
    • Production: Managed ROM production was solid at 20 million tonnes, with costs controlled at ~A$135/tonne.

    ### 4. Market & Sector Outlook

    • Coal Prices: Global thermal coal prices have surged roughly 25% year-to-date (Newcastle benchmark ~$135/t) due to energy supply disruptions in the Middle East and “fuel switching” from gas to coal in Europe and Asia.
    • Analyst Sentiment: The consensus remains a “Hold” among 14 major analysts. While some brokers (like JPMorgan) remain cautious with “Sell” ratings, others see the credit upgrade and metallurgical coal exposure as strong long-term drivers.

    ### Summary for Investors
    Whitehaven is currently at an operational and financial inflection point. The transition to a “metallurgical-heavy” producer and the recent credit boost provide a safety net against thermal coal price volatility. However, long-term ESG-related selling pressure and decarbonization trends remain the primary structural risks.

    Cisco

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Cisco

    Cisco Systems, Inc. – Common recently reported strong results for its second fiscal quarter (ended January 2024, reported Feb 2026):

    Earnings Beat: Reported record revenue of $15.3 billion (+10% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.04, exceeding analyst expectations.

    Guidance: For the full fiscal year 2026, Cisco raised its revenue outlook to $61.2B–$61.7B.

    As of March 2026, Cisco (CSCO) is undergoing a major transition from a traditional hardware-focused networking company into an AI-infrastructure and cybersecurity powerhouse.

    Here are the key takeaways you should know:

    ### 1. Recent Financial Performance (Q2 FY2026)
    Cisco recently reported strong results for its second fiscal quarter (ended January 2024, reported Feb 2026):

    • Earnings Beat: Reported record revenue of $15.3 billion (+10% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.04, exceeding analyst expectations.
    • Market Reaction: Despite the beat, the stock saw a ~9% post-earnings dip (trading around $75–$78) as investors weighed short-term margin pressures against long-term AI growth.
    • Guidance: For the full fiscal year 2026, Cisco raised its revenue outlook to $61.2B–$61.7B.

    ### 2. The AI Growth Engine
    AI is currently the most significant driver for Cisco.

    • AI Orders: The company took $2.1 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers (like Amazon, Google, Meta) in Q2 alone.
    • Raised Targets: Cisco now expects total AI orders to exceed $5 billion for FY2026.
    • New Silicon: They recently unveiled the Silicon One G300 chip, designed specifically for massive AI clusters, positioning them as a direct competitor to Broadcom in the high-end networking space.

    ### 3. Strategic Shift: Cybersecurity & Splunk
    Cisco is aggressively moving toward a software-subscription model to reduce “lumpy” hardware revenue.

    • Splunk Integration: Following its $28 billion acquisition, Splunk is being deeply integrated. Security is now viewed as a “native function” of the network rather than an add-on.
    • Recurring Revenue: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has reached $31.4 billion, with software and services now making up a significant portion of the business.
    • Backlog (RPO): Cisco has a massive backlog of $43.4 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations, providing high visibility for future revenue.

    ### 4. Valuation and Dividends
    For income-focused investors, Cisco remains a “Dividend Aristocrat” in the making:

    • Dividend: Recently increased to $0.42 per quarter (approx. 2.2% yield).
    • Capital Returns: The company returned $3 billion to shareholders last quarter ($1.6B dividends, $1.4B buybacks) and still has $10.8 billion authorized for further buybacks.
    • P/E Ratio: Currently trades at a forward P/E of roughly 25x–27x, which is slightly below the sector median, leading many analysts to view it as undervalued relative to its AI growth potential.

    ### 5. Analyst Outlook

    • Consensus: Most analysts hold a “Moderate Buy” rating.
    • Price Targets: Average targets range between $89 and $96, suggesting a potential upside of 15% to 24% from current levels.
    • Key Risks: Watch for margin pressure from rising component costs (like memory) and the speed of enterprise AI adoption beyond just the giant “hyperscalers.”

    Summary for Investors: Cisco is no longer just “the router company.” It is a massive play on the plumbing required to run AI models and the security required to protect them. The current valuation reflects a transition phase that may offer a more conservative entry point into the AI trade compared to high-flyers like Nvidia.

    Atlassian

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Atlassian

    Atlassian Corporation – Class A Common is currently exhibiting a “bottom bounce” technical pattern, with recent volume support helping the stock stabilise after falling nearly 48% year-to-date and 84% from its all-time high.

    The trading volume for Atlassian (TEAM) has seen significant increases since January, characterized by three primary waves of activity linked to earnings milestones, institutional conferences, and a broader sector rotation.

    ### 1. February Earnings Spike (The Primary Surge)
    The most substantial increase in volume occurred in early February following the company’s Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on February 5.

    • Volume Peak: Trading reached approximately 14 million shares on February 6, nearly double the session volume of the preceding days and significantly higher than the ~3 million daily average seen in early January.
    • Driver: While Atlassian surpassed $1 billion in quarterly Cloud revenue for the first time, high GAAP operating losses (driven by share-based compensation) led to a sharp -6.3% price dip, triggering high-volume sell-offs and re-positioning.

    ### 2. March “Relief Rally” & Conference Surge
    A second wave of elevated volume occurred in the first week of March, specifically around March 5.

    • Volume Spike: The stock saw a high-volume session of 12.19 million shares as it jumped +7.4% in a single day.
    • Driver:

    * Morgan Stanley TMT Conference: Management presented on March 5, highlighting their AI product (Rovo) and its 5 million monthly active users.
    * Sector Rotation: A broader “relief rally” swept the software sector as investors rotated back into beaten-down SaaS names, leading to high turnover in TEAM.

    ### 3. Overall Trend Comparison
    The average daily volume (ADV) has shifted higher throughout the quarter:

    • Early January: ~3.0M – 4.5M shares per day.
    • February Average: Elevated by volatility, often hitting 8M+ on high-activity days.
    • March Status: Currently averaging between 7.0M and 7.5M shares, indicating a sustained increase in market interest as the stock tests multi-year lows.

    ### Summary of Drivers

    Institutional Flows: Large-scale positioning updates from firms like Morgan Stanley and DNB Asset Management (which grew its stake by 266% recently) have contributed to the increased liquidity and trade frequency since the start of the year.

    AI Narrative Shift: Market sentiment transitioned from “AI fears” (concerns that AI would disrupt software) to “AI adoption” (viewing Rovo as a monetization catalyst).