Telstra & TPG Telecom

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Telstra & TPG Telecom

Over recent weeks we’ve watched money flow into defensive yield names such as Sydney Airports, Transurban & GPT to name a few. Telstra has somewhat been left behind and we therefore may see buying support build from the current oversold levels.

We’ve focused on the short-term chart patterns in both TLS and TPM as a point of interest. Also, we’ve included a chart of the iShares Global Telco ETF to help capture the “bigger picture” trend within the large cap global Telco companies overall share price performance.

Chart – TLS
Chart – TPM
Chart – iShares Global Telco ETF

 

 

Buy The Dip in Gold

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Buy The Dip in Gold

After a sharp rally on the back of equity weakness last week, Gold has consolidated above the $1240.00 level.

The technical picture is still constructive as the yellow metal is still above the 30-day moving average  at $1234.00 and the RSI reading at just above 56.00.

There are still many global stock indexes trading at elevated prices. The market has proven that the inverse correlation of Gold moving higher, as stocks move lower, still intact.

We see scope for a test of the $1235.00 level before trading higher next week. Our medium-term target is the November 10th high of $1292.00.

Investors looking to profit on a move higher can look at either the Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), buying the dip in Newcrest Mining down to $22.00, or placing Newcrest Call Option strategies.

Chart – GDX
Chart – NCM

Algo Sell Signal For Transurban

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Algo Sell Signal For Transurban

The Algo Engine triggered a sell signal in Transurban (TCL) yesterday at $11.72.

The stock has rallied over $1.00 since last week’s announcement that tolls to pay for an upgrade of the Inner City By-Pass in Brisbane.

From a broader perspective, TCL has traded between the $12.65 high made in August, and the low of of $9.45 posted in early November.

The $11.72 level is a bit higher than the 50% retracment of of this range, but we see stiff chart resistance at $12.00. We see the first level of support in the $10.80 area.

We own TCL in client portfolios from lower levels and we’ve been bullish in recent weeks on TCL and utilities, in general. This view has been predicated on the faltering backdrop for the the global relation trade.

The rally in TCL will soon stall at near $12.00 and investors should sell call options into September, with a view towards maintaining exposure to the upcoming $0.25 dividend in June.

Chart-Transurban

Dow Jones – Key Chart Signals

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Dow Jones – Key Chart Signals

The Dow Jones has found short-term support in the higher low structure at 20,412. A break below this in the next day or two will be negative for US equities.

For the time being, we’re seeing buy signals from the Algo Engine in some of the beaten-down key US financials, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley & and Bank of America.

Chart – Dow Jones
Chart – Goldman Sachs
Chart – JP Morgan
Chart – Morgan Stanley
Chart – Bank of America

 

 

 

 

 

BHP & RIO – Where is Support

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on BHP & RIO – Where is Support

Our Algo Engine has triggered multiple buy signals across the major resource names, both in metals and in energy.

With the peak to trough sell-off among the sector extending between 13% – 20% it’s likely we find some value investors stepping back in to the market.

We’re comfortable with select exposure in BHP, RIO, S32, WPL, OSH, ORG but caution investors that stop-losses below the recent lows will be a prudent way of managing risks.

It seems unlikely that any buying interest from this level will carry the above names to new near-term highs. We’re of the view that a corrective bounce will top out at 5 – 7% above recent lows

We see the recent volatility in oil and iron ore, being primarily driven by US Dollar swings rather than related to any fundamental factors and remain cautious of negative news flow from China’s unsustainable debt problem within their shadow banking industry.

Chart – BHP
Chart – RIO

 

 

 

Qantas – breaking out

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Qantas – breaking out

QAN has enjoyed strong share price performance since the release of its
1H17 results on 23 Feb 17. This has been partly supported by by the share buy-back program which at the current rates will end in the next week or two.

FY18 revenue is forecast to be $16b, EBIT flat at 1.6b, EPS $0.56 and DPS $0.26, placing the stock on a forward yield of 6%.

We’ll watch for the next Algo Engine buy signal on the structural higher low formation.

Chart – QAN