Macquarie Bank – Trending Lower

We’re cautious about the outlook for Macquarie Bank and suggest investors remain on the short side of the trade as long as the price action trends lower.

Our reference tool for tracking the move lower is the 10-day average. A break back above the average will act as a stop loss to the “short position”.

BHP & RIO – Iron Ore Prices Reviewed

The following graph displays the long term trend in Iron Ore prices and below that is the 1-year price history.

Iron Ore prices have held up surprisingly well during the early stages of the market sell-off.  We do have some concerns that resistance remains in the high USD$80 per tonne range and the pressure is now to the downside.

This forecast feeds through to our forecast for BHP & RIO, where we feel investors are best served by waiting for entry levels at lower prices.

9-year history

1-year history

 

NAB – Profit Hit

We expect National Australia Bank to run into selling pressure at $16.50. We favour the short side of this trade.

Today NAB announced first-half earnings will take a $1.14 billion after-tax hit – even before the impact of the coronavirus is accounted for.

NAB said investors will have to wait until it reports its half-year numbers on May 7 to see the impact of the pandemic on its “earnings and balance sheet including provisions, combined with capital and dividend implications”.

BBOZ – A Market Hedge

Betashares Australian Equities is the Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund. The inverse ETF provides an approach to profit from, or protect against, a declining Australian sharemarket.

The ETF is designed to generate magnified positive returns when the market goes down (and vice versa) if the market was to rise.

As a technical reference point, we’re increasing our market hedging whilst the XJO index remains below the 5533 level.

The inverse BBOZ ETF will likely find support should the XJO continue to struggle below the 5533 resistance.