ALGO Update: Stay Long Woolworths

Posted on | by Todd

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal for WOW on August 23rd at $28.25.

Since then, the share price has has traded in a relatively narrow range between $28.80 and $28.20.

The technical picture has improved and internal momentum indicators are now in oversold territory.

We see good support in the $28.00 area with an upside target near $30.00 over the medium-term.

WOW goes ex-dividend for 50 cents on September 13th with a special dividend of 10 cents, for a total of 60 cents.

Woolworths

ALGO Buy Signal For AZJ

Posted on | by Todd

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal for Aurizon Holdings on Tuesday at $4.24.

This “higher low” chart pattern is referenced to the low of $4.10 posted on June 13th.

AZJ’s FY2018 results, which were released last week, showed a modest 1% decrease in revenue from last year, but the underlying EBIT of $940 million was up 6% from 2017.

With a total dividend of 27 cents, the stock has an effective yield of 6% at current prices.

We expect the initial price target of $4.60 to be reached over the medium term.

AZJ

ALGO Update: CTX Continues Slide Lower

Posted on | by Todd

Shares of Caltex have dropped over 10% this week, posting a 3-month low of $30.10 this morning,  as investors continue to sell the stock after a disappointing 1H 2018 result.

The worst part of the report was that the fuel division posted a $314 million profit, which is below the lower end of the company’s $315 to $335 million guidance.

In addition, corporate costs rose to $31 million compared to $21 million at the same time last year, which prompted a lowering of the interim dividend from 60 cents to 57 cents.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for CTX on June 26th at $32.68.  We see scope for a key support area near the $29.00 area.

Caltex

 

 

 

ALGO Update: NCM & EVN

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

NCM reported a strong earnings result and forward guidance will be supported by higher revenue and lower costs.

Gearing is now at 12% and with gold prices likely to rally from the current oversold levels, we see scope for NCM and EVN to find buying support in the near-term.

Both stocks have gone ex-dividend today and paid 15 cents and 4 cents, respectively.

 

 

Medibank – It’s An Income Story

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

We see Medibank staying within a $2.90 – $3.20 consolidation range. There was nothing in last week’s earnings result to suggest otherwise.

With the stock on 4.1% yield, little to no revenue growth and flat underlying earnings at best, we see MPL as a “tight buy-write” strategy.

The only opportunity here is to strip out the dividend, franking credits and option income to generate 10 – 12% cash flow from a relatively low risk stock.

Value emerges near support at $2.70.

Medibank Private

Brambles – FY18 Earnings Review

Posted on | by Leon Hinde

Brambles has been excluded from our models for the last 2 years, due to the lower high price formations, caused be deteriorating profit margins.

We’seen underlying group profit slip over the last 2.5 years from high single digit growth, to negative growth.

After reporting underlying EBIT of US$997, up 4% on the same time last year, we’ve hopefully seen the inflection point. A further positive is the announcement of the IFCO sale, which is likely to fetch up to US$2.5b.

With the stock trading 20x earnings on a 3% yield, we consider it close to full value.

Brambles