Amcor – FY18 Earnings

Amcor reported FY18 earnings in-line with market expectations. NPAT came in at US$724 millon.

AMC’s earnings headwinds have continued for longer than expected and will likely carry into FY19.

We expect the acquisition/merger with Bemis, (US listed competitor), to  close in the new year and then synergy cost savings should help deliver a re-rating of the share price.

We see Amcor as good long term value although recognise that we are not under current algo buy conditions.

Amcor goes ex-div $0.32 o the 7th September.

Amcor

 

Amcor Slides Lower After Takeover Announcement

Shares of Amcor are down over 4.5% in early trade as the market digests the $7 billion (all script) takeover of US packaging peer, Bemis Company.

Logistically, the takeover bid maker sense since 85% of AMC’s revenue is from the US, Europe and the Middle East.

Along those same lines, a large proportion of AMC’s share registry is made up of international investors, which suggests the company will eventually de-list on the ASX to join the NYSE.

Monday’s announcement was not a surprise as the company has disclosed that they were in negotiations with Bemis for over a year.

Our ALGO engine has triggered several sell signals over the last week and we have been advising investors to either exit the stock or employ a buy/write strategy into October.

The next key technical support level will be found in the $13.90 to $14.00 area.

Amcor

ALGO Sell Signal For Amcor

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for AMC into the ASX close at $14.60.

The “lower high”pattern is referenced to the $14.76 high posted on February 8th.

Since trading as low as $13.10 on May 4th, the share price has risen close to 12%. At this point, we suggest clients either take profits on open positions or use a covered call strategy.

For those interested in the covered calls, we suggest selling the $14.75 calls into October for 35 cents.

This will allow investors to receive the 30 cent dividend on September 4th while increasing cash flow into the portfolio.

Amcor

Amcor – ASX 20 index

Amcor was added to the ASX 20 index this week, replacing AMP.

As an analysis of AMC, we  feel the current share price is trading in line with fair value, based upon FY19 EPS.  Assuming growth of around 6%, places the stock on a forward yield of 4.6%

With Amcor being a beneficiary of a weaker AUD, (95% of sales outside Australia), we see limited downside risks and recommend accumulating the stock.

Amcor goes ex-div $0.30 on the 4th of September.

Amcor Is Pushing Back To The $14.00 Handle

Shares of AMC have opened over 1% higher at $13.90 as the stock continues to recover from the May 4th spike low near $13.10.

The technical picture improved last week with internal momentum indicators now pointing higher on the daily price charts.

We see the $13.70 level as good support with an upside target in the $14.40 to $14.50 area.

AMC has been in our ASX Top 50 portfolio since July of last year, and is a good candidate for a Buy/Write strategy into the 30 cent dividend on September 4th. 

Amcor

 

 

 

US Yield Curve Continues To Flatten

Even though the US Stock market has stabilized over the last week, the US Treasury curve continues to flatten.

As illustrated in the chart below, the difference  between the US two and 10-yr bonds has now dropped to 46 basis points (2.36% vs 2.82%).

This is the first time since 2007 that this spread has narrowed below 50 basis points, and, in the past, has been a level which has foreshadowed recessionary pressure.

It’s our base case that the bulk of the curve flattening has been a result the two-yr yields rising quickly and the longer dated yields trading sideways to lower.

In this respect, we would expect some of the local yield names to find some buying support this week.

Some of the stocks we prefer include; TCL, SYD, WFD, AMC and GPT.

For more information about how to trade the US yield curve, call our offices on 1-300-614 002

2-yr versus 10-yr yield spread

Transurban

Sydney Airport

Westfields

 

 

 

AMC Nears Resistance At $14.50

We suggested buying AMC in a blog posting on March 7th at $14.06.

Since the start of the year, AMC has been trading in a pennant formation with support in the $13.70 area and firm resistance at $14.50.

The share price traded to $14.26 today and we are looking at $14.50 as a price inflection point.

A break higher could extend to $14.80, which would offer and opportunity to sell the $15.00 calls into December.

This would allow investors to collect the September dividend of 29.85 cents, as well as 60 to 70 cents in option premium for the sold calls.

AMCOR