ALGO UPDATE: Buy The Dip In Treasury Wine Estates

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ALGO UPDATE: Buy The Dip In Treasury Wine Estates

Shares of Treasury Wine Estates are down over 1% in early trade at $15.60.

This is almost $1.00 lower than their all-time high of $16.55 posted on December 20th.

TWE shares rose close to 50% in calendar year 2017 on increasing revenue and strategic acquisitions in Australia, Europe and the USA.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal in TWE on July 11th at $12.45 and in our Top 50 model portfolio since September 2014.

We suggest adding to long TWE positions on this pullback to the $15.50 area for a move back above $16.50 over the medium-term.

Treasury Wine Estates

 

TabCorp Shares Are In The Sell Zone

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on TabCorp Shares Are In The Sell Zone

Shares of TabCorp have rallied past our initial profit target of $5.25 and now look technically “overbought”

After trading as high as $5.73 on December 27th, the share price has backed off to $5.50.

We still like the growth prospects for TAH for 2018, and beyond, but suggest taking profits on long positions and looking buy on a pull back into the $5.20 area.

  TabCorp

 

Shares Of CCL Firm In Front Of The February Dividend

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Shares Of CCL Firm In Front Of The February Dividend

After posting a 9-year low at $7.50 on November 24th, shares of CCL have climbed over 12% and are currently at $8.52.

CCL traded as high as $10.85 last March and technically looks as though the share price has bottomed.

The $250 million share buyback scheme has lowered the NPAT to $190 million but return on capital has increased to 20% in H1 2017.

Aside from their carbonated products, CCL has a growing presence in the alcohol and coffee sector across Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia.

CCL will go ex-dividend on February 27th and pay 25 cents per share, fully franked. At the current share price, that equals a 5.4% yield.

The internal momentum indicators are rising and we see the next level of resistance at $8.95.

Coca-Cola Amatil

 

Gold Tops $1300.00 To End The Year

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Gold Tops $1300.00 To End The Year

What looked like a price meltdown two weeks ago has turned into a powerful 6% rally that is now attempting to take out key resistance at $1312.

Gold has rallied 11 of the last 13 sessions and has closed above $1300 for the first time in three months.

Our technical view is that the $70.00 rally from $1236 looks more like a short squeeze and much of the buying is from those who got too aggressive going down, with shorts being forced to cover.

Although we are longer-term bullish, at $1307 with the speed and parabolic angle of this rally, we believe a pullback into the $1285 level is a reasonable area to buy.

We added NCM to our Top 50 model Portfolio on December 13th at $22.10.

And while the internal momentum indicators for NCM are not as stretched as they are for Spot Gold, a range trade between $23.50 and $22.60 is possible for this week.

A close above the December 5th high of $23.60 would confirm NCM shares are breaking back into a new, higher trading range.

 

Newcrest Mining

 

ALGO UPDATE: Stay Long Transurban

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ALGO UPDATE: Stay Long Transurban

We added TCL to the model portfolio on July 3rd at $11.70 and our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on July 12th at $11.20.

With its $9 billion pipeline of road projects over the next 7 years, the stock should be well supported with increased longer-term cash-flow numbers.

For the six-month period ending December 31st, TCL will pay 28.5 cents per share and a total of 56 cents per share over fiscal 2018.

This equates to 4.5% with the share price at $12.40 (plus some limited franking credits.)

We see the next resistance level at the December 19th high of $13.15.

Transurban

Telstra Continues To Firm Into 2018

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Even with the 10% rally from the $3.34 low posted on November 28th, shares of Telstra dropped close to 30% in calendar year 2017.

We believe that investors were overly focused on past NBN issues and earnings estimates which seem to be pricing in worst case scenarios that assume TLS could be losing its dominate position in the telecommunications sector.

With the best existing mobile network and largest customer base, it’s our view that TLS is best positioned to profit from the growth area of mobile data application outside the NBN.

At $3.65, the projected full year dividend of 31 cents pencils out to an 8.5% yield. We consider TLS a solid addition to portfolios at these levels.

Telstra