Applied Optoelectronics

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Applied Optoelectronics

Applied Optoelectronics, commenced construction on a nearly 400,000-square-foot expansion in Pearland, Texas, to support volume production of its 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers for AI datacenters.

Sector Rotation out of Crowded AI Infrastructure Trades

  • Capex Sustainability Concerns: Concerns over hyperscaler capital expenditure returns (highlighted by heavy capex outlays across big-tech AI buyers) triggered widespread profit-taking across crowded AI component trades.
  • Peer De-rating: Peers like Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) also faced steep pullbacks as high-multiple optical names were sold off in favor of cash-generative value trades.

5/8 Update: Hold and watch the earnings release. Scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on Thursday, August 6, 2026, after Market Close.

Wall Street Expectations

    • Revenue Guidance / Estimates: Management guided Q2 revenue in the range of $180.0M – $198.0M.
    • EPS Estimate: Consensus estimates project Non-GAAP EPS around -$0.03 to +$0.03 per share.

    Space X

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    NAS:SPCX is set to report the Q2’26 earnings after the close on August 4 with the following consensus estimates as follows:

    • EPS loss of $0.23
    • Revenue of $6.82 billion, up from $4.7 billion in Q1

    The big story with Starlink is suddenly the xAI business might see a huge boost in revenues due to a couple of potential short-term AI contracts with Anthropic and Google. The combined deals unlock $80 billion in annual revenue for a company that only generated $18.7 billion in revenues last year.

    Marvell

    Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Marvell

    Marvell Technology, Inc. – Common

    Upcoming Earnings Outlook: Expected Release Date: August 27, 2026 (After Market Close)

    • Fiscal Period: Q2 Fiscal Year 2027 (Quarter ending late July 2026)
    • Consensus Estimates: Non-GAAP EPS: $0.87 – $0.93 per share (vs. $0.67 in Q2 FY2026, representing ~30%–38% YoY growth)
    • Consensus Revenue: ~$2.60B – $2.71B (vs. $2.01B in Q2 FY2026, representing ~30%–35% YoY growth)

        Key Drivers & Long-Term Growth Outlook: Marvell’s custom ASIC program (designing tailored AI chips for cloud hyperscalers like AWS, Google, and Microsoft) and optical connectivity solutions (800G / 1.6T DSPs) remain the primary catalyst.

          • Accelerating Quarterly Trajectory: Management guided sequential revenue acceleration throughout FY2027, aiming for quarterly revenue to reach ~$3.0 billion in Q3 and Q4.

          Full-Year FY2027 & FY2028 Targets:

          • FY2027 Revenue: Expected to reach ~$11.5 billion (+40% YoY growth), driven by >50% growth in the Data Center segment and >70% growth in optical interconnects.
          • FY2028 Target: Revenue guided toward ~$16.5 billion as cloud hyperscaler AI capital expenditure expands further.

            Key Things to Watch on Earnings Day

            1. Custom AI ASIC Shipments: Progress on hyperscaler customer design wins ramping into volume production.
            2. Gross & Operating Margins: Non-GAAP gross margins (target zone ~59–60%) and expense control as R&D investment increases.
            3. Hyperscaler AI Capex Trends: Any commentary on customer demand pacing for 800G/1.6T electro-optics and PCIe/CXL switches.
            4. Supply Chain Capacity: Lead times and substrate/co-packaged optics assembly capacity.