James Hardie : A Buy/Write Strategy

Our Algo Engine generated a buy signal for JHX recently at $21.50.

With the US housing cycle remaining strong, (although weak numbers in June are the reason for some caution), and James Hardie having a dominant market position in fiber cement, we think the long term trajectory for earnings & margins are strong.

FY19 revenues should increase 20% and underlying EBIT will jump from $380m to $480m.

With the stock trading on a low 2.2% forward yield, we recommend adding a covered call option to enhance the income.

Selling the $23.50 October strike adds $0.50 per share of additional cash flow.

JHX goes ex div $0.30 on the 12th of December.

 

Algo Update – James Hardie

Our Algo Engine recently generated a buy signal in James Hardie Industries and the stock was added to the ASX50 model.

While the Australian housing cycle is turning, JHX continues to grow above market through a combination of plant efficiencies and new new products. 

We remain “long” JHX whilst the share price holds above the $21.50 price level.

JHX goes ex-div $0.30 on the 12th of December. Adding a November $24 call option will enhance the income by a further $0.60 per share.

James Hardie

 

ALGO Buy Signal For James Hardie

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on JHX into Monday’s ASX close at $22.45. The share price surged 4.5% to $23.50 yesterday and has pulled back into the $23.00 area in early trade today.

Tuesday’s sharp move higher was prompted by the release of their Q4 full-year results, which reflected a 12% increase in EBIT to USD397 million, as well as positive guidance for FY 2019.

We see scope for a move back into the April high levels just below $24.30 and suggest working a sell stop at or near the recent low of $22.20.

James Hardie goes ex-div $0.30 on the 6th of June.  Adding a $24 Dec call option generates an additional $0.92 per share income.

James Hardie

 

 

 

ALGO Update: James Hardie

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for JHX  on December 27th at 22.40

It took several sessions for this trade to develop as the share price traded up to 22.80 on January 9th.

However, JHX shares have dropped over 6% this week and posted a low of $21.32 in early trade today.

A sharp drop in US Housing starts overnight has added to the potential downside pressure on the share price.

Single family housing starts declined by 8.2% in December to 1.19 million units. This is the largest monthly decline in 2 years and could further soften the JHX share price.

We see the next level of support at $21.00 followed by the mid-November low of $20.55.

JHX shares are traded as a CFD contract on our SAXO Go trading platform.

Call us now for more information about JHX and other names available to trade on our SAXO Go Platform.

James Hardie

 

ALGO UPDATE: JHX Is Still In The Sell Zone

Our ALGO engine originally triggered  a sell signal for JHX on November 22nd at $21.50.

The chart below shows that an additional sell signal was generated at Friday’s close at $22.40.

JHX  has been grinding higher, on lower volume, with support from unexpectedly strong housing data out of the USA.

Over the last week, the US new home sales, building permits and existing home sales have all printed higher than consensus forecasts.

From a technical perspective, JHX is still following a “lower high” pattern based on the May 2nd high trade at $23.20.

With a current P/E of  30.00, the stock is on the expensive side of its industry peers and due for a material correction lower.

 

James Hardie

 

 

ALGO Signal: Sell James Hardie

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal on JHX at $21.51 at yesterday’s ASX close.

Internal momentum indicators have been showing an “overbought” pattern since November 10th, which supports the ALGO Sell signal.

The fundamentals in the building materials sectors have been mixed, but we expect a softer tone overall going into the end of the year.

Our first downside target is at $20.40 with a bigger level of support near the November 6th low of $19.20.

James Hardie

 

 

Building Stocks Approach Key Resistence Levels

Reports about the health of the Aussie housing market vary depending on who is writing them; the RBA is suggesting the market is softening as household debt increases, while real estate agents look to foreign buyers to support higher prices.

Within this mix we have seen building stocks rally hard and are now beginning to look overbought.

Of the three major companies, CSR, JHX and BLD, our ALGO engine has triggered a sell signal on both CSR and JHX.

The internal momentum indicators on all three of these names are in extreme valuation ranges and and near their 52-week highs.

We believe it’s reasonable to expect a pullback from current levels and look for downside targets of $17.75 in JHX, $4.30 in CSR and $6.50 in BLD.

 James Hardie

CSR

 

Boral

ALGO SIGNAL: Sell James Hardie

On August 8th, our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on JHX at $17.90.

At the ASX close last Thursday, the ALGO engine gave us a sell signal at $18.83.

Looking at the daily chart, the price action fits the “lower high” pattern based on the July 27th intra-day high of $19. 80. In addition, internal momentum indicators have now crossed into overbought territory.

Investors who took the August buy signal on JHX should look to exit the stock around the current $19.00 level.

 James Hardie

 

Housing & Construction – BLD, JHX & CSR

Boral reported FY17 results that were inline with market expectations, with underlying EBIT of $460m NPAT of $343m. A final dividend of $0.12 per share (50% franked) was declared, taking the full-year dividend to $0.24, up 7% on FY16 and representing a payout ratio of 82%.

FY18 forward dividend yield, based on $0.26, is 3.5%.

The investment case for Boral is the strength of Australian infrastructure and US housing,  however, the trends within the housing and construction stocks look less than favorable.