SEEK – Valuation Review

SEEK provided a trading update at its AGM yesterday, upping its guidance for
EBITDA growth to 13% and reaffirming NPAT guidance of $220-230m.

FY18 Revenue $1.3b, EBIT $340m, EPS $0.63, DPS $0.44, placing the stock on a forward yield of 2.4%.

Our Algo Engine last triggered a buy signal back in June, when SEEK was trading at $16.40.  A pullback to $17 will provide a lower risk entry level.

SEEK

 

Algo Buy Signal – Seek

Our Algo Engine triggered a buy signal in SEK back in mid-June, when the stock was trading at $16.15, since then the price action has rallied to $17.50.

We consider the current price level as full value and investors should consider either taking profit, or selling covered call options.

Seek reports their earnings on the 16th of August and the market is expecting underlying EPS growth of 10 – 15%, delivering NPAT of $192 million.

Chart – SEK

SEEK Earnings Update

Share of Seek are down over 3% in early trade after announcing disappointing underlying earnings for the six-month period ending December 31st.

The company reported EBITDA of $170.3 million, down from $193.3 million in the previous period on revenue of $487.9 million.

Seek announced an interim dividend of 23 cents per share, which was up 10% versus a year ago.

Our Algo Engine has triggered a “short” signal at yesterday’s high of $15.92.

 

Chart – SEK

Seek – Reaffirms Guidance for FY17

SEEK reaffirms guidance for FY17 underlying profit of A$215m-A$220m.

SEEK was able to maintain guidance for FY17 due to strong operational performance from most business units, despite unfavourable currency moves.

FY17 revenue $1.b, EBITDA $400m, EPS $0.60, DPS $0.40 places the stock a forward yield 2.8%.

We like Seek and see upside earnings potential, however, after entering long positions at the recent low, we now look to lock-in profit ahead of anticipated resistance, at or near $15.50

We’ll revisit new entry opportunities on the next algorithm signal.

Chart - Seek
Chart – Seek

 

 

Seek – Value Based Buy Rec & Why We’re Applying a Stop Loss

We’ve been buyers of SEK this week at or near $14.50. We highlight the benefit of running a stop loss as indicated on the chart. Whilst we see value at the current price point, we’re also mindful that the technical structure is weak, therefore, as a protection of capital we apply a stop loss at $13.90

Seek (SEK.ASX) reported FY16 NPAT of $198m in line with guidance. The company maintained FY17 guidance of NPAT in the range of $215 – $220m.

Weakness in the education segment was off set by strength in the Asian employment business. FY17 revenue should increase 10% to $1b on EBITDA of $415m, EPS of $0.64 representing 15 – 20% underlying growth. This places the stock on a forward yield of 2.8%, assuming $0.40 in dividends for FY17.

Chart - Seek
Chart – Seek

 

 

 

Buy Signals – Now Trading on Support

The following group of stocks offer above average earnings growth, structural uptrends and are currently trading back on support levels that warrant closer attention.

ASX, AMC, BXB, JHX RHC, SEK, SHL, SUN and TWE.

asx
Chart – ASX
Chart - AMC
Chart – AMC
bxb
Chart – BXB
jhx
Chart – JHX
sek
Chart – SEK
Chart - SHL
Chart – SHL
Chart - SUN
Chart – SUN
Chart - TWE
Chart – TWE

More detail on the Investor Signals portfolio allocations and derivative overlay strategy will be provided in the October ASX top 50 Video Market Report.

 

Seek FY16 Earnings Result

Seek (SEK.ASX) reported FY16 NPAT of $198m in line with guidance. The company maintained FY17 guidance of NPAT in the range of $215 – $220m.

Weakness in the education segment was off set by strength in the Asian employment business. FY17 revenue should increase 10% to $1b on EBITDA of $415m, EPS of $0.64 representing 15 – 20% underlying growth. This places the stock on a forward yield of 2.4%, assuming $0.40 in dividends for FY17.

Seek trades on 25x FY17 multiple and therefore we think the stock trades in a range of $16.00 support to $17.50 resistance for the next 12 months or more.

SEK

 

 

Long SEK.ASX

Long SEK.ASX

SEK

This is a difficult one to pinpoint the ideal entry level, so you may want to think about managing the entry price with two separate buy transactions. The momentum supports a bounce at or near the $14.50 to $15.00 range as an entry point. This will be a slow consolidation, followed by a bounce higher. Be patient, mange the entry price and SEK should deliver further upside momentum.