One of the main policy points from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was that the US Central bank will accept an overshoot in inflation even if overall GDP growth starts to slow……..more commonly known as Stagflation.
Stagflation is an economic condition which is characterized by higher inflation and lower GDP and employment growth, which is not bullish for equity markets and not bearish for Gold.
Over the last 6-months, Gold has been trading in a broad pennant formation bound by $1365 on the topside and supported at $1300 at the lower end of the range.
Due to recent USD strength, the yellow metal is currently trading near the bottom end of the range near $1315.
If US inflation rates continue to probe higher, we expect the USD/Goldcorrelation to soften. In an inflationary environment, Gold and the USD usually move higher simultaneously.
As illustrated in the charts below, the local gold mining stocks have been showing divergence with SBM, EVN and SAR near all-time highs, while NCM is trading at $21.55, almost $3.00 below its 52-week high.
Our base case is that Gold will rise over the medium-term, which should be supportive for the local mining names.
For more information on investment strategies within the Gold sector, call our office at 1-300-614-002.
Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on Newcrest Mining at $21.90 yesterday.
Clients and subscribers were notified via email that NCM has been added to our ASX Top 50 portfolio listed in the Premium section of the blog.
The recent slide in Spot Gold prices has impacted domestic Gold producers unevenly. Shares of the smaller firms like SBM, EVN and SAR have held their value and even firmed over recent sessions relative to NCM.
We believe that NCM’s recent sale of its 89.9% stake in Bonikro mine in Cote d’Ivoire has caused some short-term pressure to the share price value investors will support the share price in the $21.80 area.
The current momentum indicators are in oversold territory and the ALGO engine flagged the “higher low” formation based on the October lows near $20.90.
As the price of Spot Gold moves back into the $1300 area, we expect NCM shares to move back into the high $24.00 handle.
Over the last two weeks, the price of Gold has made two attempts at breaking through the $1300.00 mark.
On both occasions, the yellow metal dropped back to find support just above the $1270.00 level.
This technical pattern is known as a “pennant” formation and is a continuation pattern. In this case, the break out points for range extension are $1308 and $1263.
Fundamentally, the case for buying Gold remains compelling. The surge in volatility across global stock markets combined with heightened geopolitical uncertainty supports the logic for owning Gold or Gold mining shares.
We expect the price of Gold to break through the $1300 level over the near-term. Our preferred Gold mining shares are NCM, EVN, SBM and SAR.
Investors looking to profit from a rally in Gold can either buy these shares outright, or buy their CFDs listed on our SAXO Go platform.